ClaimMechanism
The build-out only makes sense if the builders expect continued access to the US market: C-39's rail-competition clause for the Prairies takes effect only 'when there is a reliable trading relationship with the United States', and the firm new oil capacity runs south.
The evidence it rests on
Supports (3)
- Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, introduced by Steven MacKinnon
The US-conditional interswitching clause.
Documented by: Parliament of Canada (LEGISinfo), “LEGISinfo: C-39 (45-1), An Act respecting certain measures to strengthen the economy (Building Canada Strong Act)” (external site), . and 13 more
- Enbridge takes its final investment decision on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (+150,000 b/d) and a Flanagan South expansion (+100,000 b/d), US$1.4B
Firm capacity is southbound.
Documented by: Enbridge, “Enbridge Adding Canadian Egress to Key U.S. Refining Markets, Enhancing North American Energy Security” (external site), . and 2 more
- Trump signs a presidential permit for the Bridger Pipeline expansion, which re-uses Keystone XL assets (about 550,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude initially)
Southbound project with shipper commitments.
Documented by: BOE Report (Reuters), “Trump signs order authorizing oil pipeline project partially reviving Keystone XL” (external site), . and 4 more
Complicates (2)
- Uniper signs a binding agreement to buy 2 Mtpa of LNG from Ksi Lisims for up to 20 years, with first deliveries expected in 2032
This LNG is sold to a European buyer, so this part of the build-out does not rest on access to the US market.
Documented by: Major Projects Office, “Ksi Lisims LNG - Major Projects Office” (external site). and 3 more
- Carney sets a goal to double Canada's non-US exports over the next decade
Stated goal is less US dependence.
Documented by: PBS News (Associated Press), “Carney says Canada will aim to double its non-U.S. exports amid economic tensions” (external site), . and 1 more
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.