Event27 November 2024Statement

AFPM (US refiners): American refiners depend on Canadian and Mexican crude; asks for energy to be excluded from tariffs

Predicts harm to US refining, not any Canadian reaction. AFPM is, in our reading, the lobby behind the energy carve-out.

Date: 27 November 2024
Kind: Statement
Where: United States
Evidence: Statement: Something was said. Weighted lowest: words cost less than actions. How evidence is weighed
Who: American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) (acted); Chet Thompson (spoke)

Articles that cite this record

An awkward response

Sources

AFPM, “AFPM statement on potential North American tariffs” (external site), 27 November 2024. source record

Quotes

“American refiners depend on crude oil from Canada and Mexico… we would hope any future tariffs would exclude these critical feedstocks”

From AFPM: AFPM statement on potential North American tariffs

Tested hypotheses: a thought experiment

Suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this. Would this event look any different than under the rival readings? This is a deliberately contrarian test, explained here, not the author’s belief. Judgments, not measurements.

Judged to fit the plain self-interest reading better than the foresight reading. What this means

Reading	Fit	Why
I0a Accident Tested hypothesis (intent)	Fits weak	Consistent with domestic lobbying shaping US tariff design; a statement by an interest group, not the administration.
I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent)	Fits weak	Consistent with plain US self-interest (refiners needing Canadian crude); it predicts harm to US refining, not any Canadian response.
I1 Foreseen and welcomed, not the reason Tested hypothesis (intent)	Neutral weak	A US industry lobby asking to spare energy imports fits all intent readings equally; it says nothing about foresight of Canada's build-out or about weakening Canada.
I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent)	Neutral weak	A US industry lobby asking to spare energy imports fits all intent readings equally; it says nothing about foresight of Canada's build-out or about weakening Canada.
I3 Worked-out plan with specific targets Tested hypothesis (intent)	Neutral weak	A US industry lobby asking to spare energy imports fits all intent readings equally; it says nothing about foresight of Canada's build-out or about weakening Canada.
R-annex Annexation Rival reading	Neutral weak	A US industry lobby asking to spare energy imports fits all intent readings equally; it says nothing about foresight of Canada's build-out or about weakening Canada.
R-frag Fragmentation Rival reading	Neutral weak	A US industry lobby asking to spare energy imports fits all intent readings equally; it says nothing about foresight of Canada's build-out or about weakening Canada.
R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading	Neutral weak	A US industry lobby asking to spare energy imports fits all intent readings equally; it says nothing about foresight of Canada's build-out or about weakening Canada.