EventStatement
Carney to the NYT: he looked at the 'extreme tail risk' of US military action; 'not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to'
In a 1-hour on-the-record interview at NYT headquarters in Manhattan (Wed 2026-09-23, during his UNGA trip), asked, in the interviewer's words, whether he had "ever considered there was a chance of US military action against Canada" (Matina Stevis-Gridneff's X thread, 2026-09-23), Carney said after a long pause: "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk... That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to" [prepare]. He declined to say what the examination involved. The word 'invasion' was the NYT's, not Carney's (Stevis-Gridneff to CTV, 2026-09-24). No DND/PCO document or description of the process was released. Snopes (2026-09-25) and The Independent paraphrased the question as whether he took Trump's 51st-state threats seriously; the interviewer's own thread gives the question as quoted above.
- Date
- Kind
- Statement
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Statement: Something was said. Weighted lowest: words cost less than actions. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- United States federal government (subject); Government of Canada (acted); Mark Carney (spoke)
When people heard about it
The public does not always learn of an event when it happens: some come out later, and old ones can become news again because of something newer.
- Happened
- First reported
- (same day), in The New York Times
Older events this brought back into the news
- At Mar-a-Lago, Trump rules out military force but says he would use "economic force" to make Canada a state. (7 January 2025 → 23 September 2026)
- Hoekstra at Luke AFB: 'NORAD would have to be altered' if Canada drops the F-35; asked about the US as a threat: 'That's crazy. We're not a threat.' (about 26 January 2026 → 24 September 2026)
- Adm. Paparo (INDOPACOM), beside Gen. Carignan in Victoria: an order to attack Canada is 'absolutely and utterly preposterous'; 'I follow the orders of the commander-in-chief' (2 September 2026 → 24 September 2026)
- Adm. Paparo (INDOPACOM), beside Gen. Carignan in Victoria: an order to attack Canada is 'absolutely and utterly preposterous'; 'I follow the orders of the commander-in-chief' (2 September 2026 → 24 September 2026)
- Trump (Meet the Press): force against Canada 'highly unlikely... I just don't see it'; does not rule it out for Greenland (4 May 2025 → 24 September 2026)
- Globe: the CAF has modelled a hypothetical US invasion (first time in a century); insurgency-style response; an end to NORAD cooperation would be among the warning signs (20 January 2026 → 25 September 2026)
Articles that cite this record
Sources
- X (Twitter), “Matina Stevis-Gridneff X thread on the Carney NYT interview” (external site), . source record
- CBC News / The Canadian Press, “Carney tells NYT he studied risk of U.S.-led military action in Canada” (external site), . source record
- CP24 / CTV News, “CP24/CTV live updates: Carney NYT comments; McGuinty, Solomon, MacKay, Stevis-Gridneff reactions” (external site), . source record
- The Independent (Yahoo News), “Canada made plans on what to do if Trump invaded, Mark Carney reveals” (external site), . source record
- Newsweek, “How US and Canada Militaries Compare as Carney Says He Studied Invasion Risk” (external site), . source record
- Snopes, “Did Canada's Mark Carney say he was prepared for US invasion?” (external site), . source record
- The New York Times, “Carney Lays Out His Vision for Breaking Canada's Reliance on U.S.” (external site), . paywalled source record
- The Globe and Mail, “Carney prepared for risk that Trump might order military action against Canada, report says” (external site), . paywalled source record
- Bloomberg, “Carney Tells NYT He Looked at 'Extreme Tail Risk' Of US Invasion” (external site), . paywalled source record
- Washington Examiner, “Carney says Canada has prepped for an 'extreme tail risk' of US military action” (external site), . paywalled source record
- The Irish Times (NYT syndication), “Mark Carney says Canada has prepared for 'extreme tail risk' of US military action” (external site), . paywalled source record
Quotes
“He did not use the word 'invasion' to be clear, that was our word.”
From CP24 / CTV News: CP24/CTV live updates: Carney NYT comments; McGuinty, Solomon, MacKay, Stevis-Gridneff reactions, live updates, entry 'Times reporter on Carney interview' (Stevis-Gridneff)