{
 "exported_at": "2026-10-24T16:07:32Z",
 "licence": null,
 "index": "https://carnet49.ca/data/index.json",
 "articles": [
  {
   "slug": "what-the-us-nets",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/what-the-us-nets/",
   "title": "What the US nets",
   "subtitle": "Canada's resource build-out pays the US a little; the trade war costs it more. In our model, the US comes out ahead of 2024 by 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone, and the decade leaves it behind in every run.",
   "summary": "What Canada nets left the US side uncounted. Counting it on the same simulated futures: by 2034, Canada's resource build-out adds about US$1.5 billion a year to Americans' income, mostly US owners' profits from Canadian oil, gas and LNG, but the trade war costs more. The US comes out ahead unless about 10% of today's tariff damage is still in place, against about 57% for Canada. If today's tariffs fade the way past US tariffs did, the US comes out ahead in about 14% of our runs and Canada in 98%. Over 2025 to 2034, the US is behind in every run. Either way it is small for the US: about 0.006% of its economy in 2034. The build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 8,
   "tags": [
    "US net gain",
    "costs",
    "tariffs",
    "counter-tariffs",
    "boycott",
    "heavy oil",
    "natural gas",
    "LNG",
    "US owners",
    "how long tariffs last",
    "both sides win",
    "model"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": null,
   "translation": {
    "slug": "le-bilan-net-des-etats-unis",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/le-bilan-net-des-etats-unis/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "who-pays-us-spirits-exports-to-canada-mar-dec",
     "who-pays-us-wine-exports-to-canada"
    ],
    "claim": [
     "outcome-build-out-pays-trade-war-doesnt",
     "outcome-us-income-build-out-small-war-costs-more"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-02-01-eo-14193-ieepa-sets-a-25-tariff-on-canadian-goods-and-10-on-canadian",
     "2025-03-04-provincial-liquor-boards-including-the-lcbo-and-saq-pull-us-alcohol",
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2026-02-24-ieepa-tariffs-rescinded-ending-certain-tariff-actions",
     "2026-07-22-statcan-2025-return-trips-from-us-down-25pct-spending-down-3-3b",
     "2026-09-08-canadian-counter-tariffs-take-effect-on-canada-s-own-list-of-c-27-6b",
     "2026-10-01-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-building-canada-act"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-5",
     "s338-proclamations"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "lng-canada-phase-2"
    ],
    "source": [
     "bea-ita-services-table-2-3-canada-2026-07-07",
     "bea-nipa-flat-files-gdp-2026-10-05",
     "cbo-61389-tariff-effects-letter-2025-06-04",
     "cbo-data-github-economic-projections-2026-02",
     "discus-2025-spirits-exports-report-2026-03-31",
     "eia-company-level-imports-2024",
     "eia-landed-costs-imported-crude-streams-annual",
     "eia-ng-exports-by-country-annual",
     "eia-ng-imports-by-country-annual",
     "everycrsreport-reports-r49349-html",
     "nyfed-who-pays-2025-tariffs-2026-02-12",
     "piie-us-tariffs-canada-mexico-hurt-all-three-2025-02-04",
     "pwbm-economic-effects-trump-tariffs-2025-04-10",
     "statcan-cimt-imports-capital-goods-2023-2025",
     "statcan-table-33-10-0570",
     "statcan-table-36-10-0222-gdp-expenditure-provincial",
     "taxfoundation-trump-tariffs-tracker-2026-10-05",
     "usda-ascf-payment-rates-2026-05-29",
     "usda-fba-payment-rates-2025-12-31",
     "ustreasury-shc-2024-us-holdings-foreign-securities",
     "westernlng-150m-private-placement-2025-01-14",
     "wine-institute-one-year-later-2026-03-04",
     "yale-budget-lab-state-of-us-tariffs-2026-08-24"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "does-opposition-stop-projects",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/does-opposition-stop-projects/",
   "title": "Does opposition stop projects?",
   "subtitle": "In the record so far, resource projects that faced organized First Nations opposition reached construction about as often as those that didn't. The samples are tiny, and the record leaves our forecast where it was.",
   "summary": "We expected organized First Nations, Métis and Inuit opposition to lower the odds that a project gets built, and tested it before letting it into our forecast. It doesn't show: 4 of 7 approved projects facing it reached construction, against 1 of 2 without it, and 2 of 4 against 2 of 8 at the review stage. Tiny samples and a null result. Under the rule we wrote first, the record would now enter our forecast for two projects; the forecast follows the rule of a larger study of past projects instead, which finds no effect of opposition, so nothing changes.",
   "series": "Who holds the veto",
   "series_order": 2,
   "tags": [
    "who holds the veto",
    "First Nations",
    "Métis",
    "Inuit",
    "opposition",
    "base rates",
    "forecast",
    "Trans Mountain",
    "Coastal GasLink",
    "Northern Gateway",
    "Mary River",
    "Ksi Lisims LNG",
    "Kudz Ze Kayah",
    "LNG Canada Phase 2"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T04:35:21Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "l-opposition-arrete-t-elle-les-projets",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/l-opposition-arrete-t-elle-les-projets/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "claim": [
     "mechanism-no-veto-deal-or-override",
     "mechanism-opposition-no-construction-gap"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2016-06-23-federal-court-of-appeal-quashes-northern-gateway-approval",
     "2016-11-29-cabinet-directs-neb-to-dismiss-northern-gateway",
     "2018-08-30-fca-quashes-trans-mountain-expansion-approval",
     "2020-01-05-wetsuweten-hereditary-chiefs-evict-coastal-gaslink",
     "2020-04-24-alberta-court-of-appeal-sets-aside-rigel-approval",
     "2021-10-22-altagas-cancels-alton-gas-storage-project",
     "2022-11-16-minister-rejects-mary-river-phase-2",
     "2024-05-01-trans-mountain-expansion-enters-commercial-service",
     "2024-11-18-coastal-gaslink-declared-commercially-in-service",
     "2025-12-02-gitanyow-letter-asks-banks-not-to-finance-ksi-lisims",
     "2026-03-05-cnsc-construction-licence-for-nexgen-rook-i",
     "2026-04-10-kudz-ze-kayah-mine-re-approved-over-kaska-objection",
     "2026-09-29-wetsuweten-chiefs-and-groups-oppose-lng-canada-phase-2",
     "2026-10-01-lng-canada-phase-2-early-construction-begins"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng"
    ],
    "source": [
     "abca-2020-163-fort-mckay-v-prosper",
     "aer-co-2021-003-prosper-rigel-costs",
     "cbc-alton-gas-project-cancelled-2021-10-22",
     "cbc-kudz-ze-kayah-approved-again-2026-04-14",
     "cbc-minister-says-no-to-baffinland-expansion-2022-11-16",
     "cdev-tmx-commercial-service-2024-05-01",
     "cnsc-rook-i-licence-2026-03",
     "fca-gitxaala-v-canada-2016-fca-187",
     "northernview-lng-canada-phase-2-construction-begins-2026-10-08",
     "pbi-gitanyow-banks-letter-ksi-lisims-2025-12-02",
     "pm-trudeau-pipeline-announcement-2016-11-29",
     "ravencoast-lng-canada-phase-2-releases-pro-con-2026-09-29",
     "tc-energy-2024-annual-information-form"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "what-canada-nets",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/what-canada-nets/",
   "title": "What Canada nets",
   "subtitle": "Our forecast's 81% for 'both sides win' counted only the US side. Counting Canada's: by 2034 it comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place, but the decade as a whole leaves it behind.",
   "summary": "Our forecast put about 81% on both Canada and the US coming out ahead by 2034, but that figure counted only the US side. Counting Canada's side: in 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless about 57% of today's tariff damage is still in place; if the tariffs fade the way past US tariffs did, our model gives it 98%, and if they never end, about 9%. Over the decade as a whole, the war years leave Canada behind, typically by about C$89 billion. The build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 7,
   "tags": [
    "Canada's net gain",
    "costs",
    "tariffs",
    "how long tariffs last",
    "trade deal",
    "Pacific Link",
    "LNG",
    "First Nations",
    "public money",
    "emissions",
    "both sides win",
    "model"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-15T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "le-bilan-net-du-canada",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/le-bilan-net-du-canada/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "claim": [
     "outcome-build-out-pays-trade-war-doesnt"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-02-01-eo-14193-ieepa-sets-a-25-tariff-on-canadian-goods-and-10-on-canadian",
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2026-02-24-ieepa-tariffs-rescinded-ending-certain-tariff-actions",
     "2026-06-04-pbo-efo-june-2026-tariffs-permanent",
     "2026-08-18-tentative-deal",
     "2026-08-21-carney-tells-his-negotiators-to-walk-away-after-late-us-demands",
     "2026-09-08-canadian-counter-tariffs-take-effect-on-canada-s-own-list-of-c-27-6b",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision",
     "2026-10-01-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-building-canada-act"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-5",
     "s338-proclamations"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "lng-canada-phase-2",
     "west-coast-oil-pipeline"
    ],
    "source": [
     "boc-mpr-2025-07-30",
     "boc-mpr-2025-10-29",
     "boc-mpr-2026-07-15-report",
     "cbc-how-trade-talks-fell-apart-2026-08-24",
     "crs-r42789-softwood-lumber-2018",
     "eccc-social-cost-ghg-interim-guidance",
     "fr-2026-21286-softwood-cvd-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "fr-2026-21296-softwood-ad-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "fr-proc-9893-2019-05-19",
     "gac-softwood-lumber-faq-2026-08-05",
     "lngcanada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "pbo-efo-june-2026-2026-06-04",
     "pmo-lng-canada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "pmo-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-2026-10-01",
     "seu-2026-annex1",
     "tbs-cost-benefit-analysis-guide",
     "westernlng-150m-private-placement-2025-01-14"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "who-holds-the-veto",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/who-holds-the-veto/",
   "title": "No veto, one way out",
   "subtitle": "Canadian law gives First Nations no veto over resource projects and offers one exit: a deal. That makes almost any opposition look like bargaining. The one result that holds however the cases are counted points toward rights.",
   "summary": "Launch of a series on First Nations, Métis and Inuit positions on the resource build-out. Consultation gives no veto, so 'opposed, then signed' is what the system produces whatever the motive. Across 132 cases, the evidence that can separate motives leans toward rights, and the people who wanted a stop or a say often got neither.",
   "series": "Who holds the veto",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "who holds the veto",
    "First Nations",
    "Métis",
    "Inuit",
    "duty to consult",
    "consent",
    "benefit agreements",
    "Ksi Lisims LNG",
    "Pessamit",
    "Mary River",
    "Tahltan",
    "Squamish Nation",
    "Wolastoqey",
    "Burnaby",
    "British Columbia"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-08T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": null,
   "translation": {
    "slug": "pas-de-veto-une-seule-issue",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/pas-de-veto-une-seule-issue/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "claim": [
     "mechanism-no-veto-deal-or-override"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2016-06-23-federal-court-of-appeal-quashes-northern-gateway-approval",
     "2016-10-squamish-nation-council-selects-air-cooling-woodfibre",
     "2017-02-10-wolastoq-grand-council-remains-opposed-to-sisson",
     "2017-02-10-wolastoqey-nations-sisson-accommodation-agreement",
     "2017-04-06-bc-trans-mountain-benefits-agreement",
     "2018-08-23-scc-refuses-burnaby-leave-on-tmx-bylaws",
     "2018-08-30-fca-quashes-trans-mountain-expansion-approval",
     "2021-11-06-mittimatalik-hto-opposes-mary-river-phase-2",
     "2022-11-16-minister-rejects-mary-river-phase-2",
     "2026-01-26-tahltan-consent-and-bc-certificate-eskay-creek",
     "2026-06-09-ksi-lisims-challenges-withdrawn-after-western-lng-benefit-agreements",
     "2026-07-12-pessamit-members-reject-hydro-quebec-agreement"
    ],
    "source": [
     "baffinland-phase-2-final-written-statement-summary-2022-01-24",
     "bcgov-eskay-creek-consent-decisions-2026-01-26",
     "bcgov-red-chris-block-cave-amendment-2026-06-18",
     "bcgov-tmx-final-benefits-agreement-2017-04-08",
     "bclaws-dripa-sbc-2019-c44",
     "cbc-maliseet-sisson-mine-deal-2017-02-10",
     "cbc-metlakatla-lax-kwalaams-ksi-lisims-2026-06-09",
     "cbc-qia-rejects-mary-river-expansion-2021-03-08",
     "cbc-squamish-rejects-woodfibre-lng-deal-2026-09-22",
     "cbc-squamish-woodfibre-225m-benefits-2018-11-30",
     "cdev-tmx-commercial-service-2024-05-01",
     "fca-gitxaala-v-canada-2016-fca-187",
     "fca-tsleil-waututh-v-canada-2018-fca-153",
     "noovo-pessamit-reactions-rejet-2026-07-13",
     "nunatsiaq-community-reps-oppose-baffinland-2021-11-06",
     "pmo-trans-mountain-expansion-approved-2019-06-18",
     "radiocanada-pessamit-entente-rejetee-2026-07-12",
     "scc-haida-nation-v-bc-2004-scc-73",
     "squamish-district-wlng-agreement-declined-2026-09-22",
     "westernlng-laxkwalaams-benefits-agreement-2026-06-09",
     "woodfibre-squamish-nation-ea-agreement-2015-10-19"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-money-builds-not-sues",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/us-money-builds-not-sues/",
   "title": "Where US money shows up, it builds",
   "subtitle": "A US think tank proposed covertly funding Indigenous lawsuits against Canadian projects. We traced the US money near those projects since January 2025: all we could see goes into building them.",
   "summary": "Since January 2025, every US dollar we could trace near a Canadian resource project goes into building it: C$2.7 billion from KKR and Apollo for Westcoast pipeline expansions, C$8 million from Newmont to Tahltan communities, US$25 million in Pentagon grants, and benefit agreements at Ksi Lisims LNG after which two nations dropped their court challenges. We found no US money behind any First Nations lawsuit. Most money enabling projects is Canadian, Alberta funds one lawsuit, and covert funding would not show in public records.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 6,
   "tags": [
    "who pays",
    "First Nations",
    "litigation funding",
    "DARC",
    "Ksi Lisims LNG",
    "Westcoast pipeline",
    "Pentagon",
    "Pacific Link",
    "Ecojustice",
    "RAVEN",
    "United States",
    "speculative explanations"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": null,
   "translation": {
    "slug": "l-argent-americain-construit",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/l-argent-americain-construit/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2022-11-07-wilburforce-grant-for-gitxaala-litigation",
     "2024-05-16-dpa-8-35m-lomiko-la-loutre",
     "2024-08-alberta-advance-costs-beaver-lake-cree-defend-the-treaties",
     "2025-05-01-dpa-15m-northcliff-sisson",
     "2025-05-26-newmont-8m-contribution-tahltan-red-chris",
     "2025-07-first-nations-alliance-buys-12-5-pct-of-westcoast",
     "2025-10-31-ecojustice-t3010-revenue-from-outside-canada-rises",
     "2025-10-metlakatla-lax-kwalaams-file-challenges-to-ksi-lisims",
     "2025-12-08-dod-second-10m-tranche-electra-dpa",
     "2026-02-26-darc-blog-proposes-covert-support-for-pq",
     "2026-06-09-ksi-lisims-challenges-withdrawn-after-western-lng-benefit-agreements",
     "2026-08-27-kkr-and-apollo-agree-to-buy-29-pct-of-westcoast",
     "2026-09-21-us-tribes-seek-to-intervene-in-gitxaala-scc-appeal",
     "2026-09-22-ottawa-offers-indigenous-groups-15-pct-of-trans-mountain",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision",
     "2026-10-01-ubcic-rejects-pacific-link-vows-court-fight",
     "2026-10-02-washington-governor-criticizes-pacific-link-listing"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-5"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "west-coast-oil-pipeline"
    ],
    "source": [
     "aptn-pacific-link-first-nations-denounce-2026-10-01",
     "bnn-trans-mountain-15pct-indigenous-2026-09-22",
     "breach-elbows-up-pentagon-stakes-canadian-mines-2026-05-22",
     "cbc-metlakatla-lax-kwalaams-ksi-lisims-2026-06-09",
     "cdev-first-indigenous-loan-guarantee-westcoast",
     "cra-t3010-ecojustice-fy2024-sch6",
     "cra-t3010-ecojustice-fy2025-sch6",
     "cra-t3010-raven-2024-sch6",
     "darc-centrifugal-strategy-2026-02-26",
     "eigpartners-eigs-midocean-energy-completes-acquisition-of-interest-in",
     "enbridge-kkr-apollo-westcoast-jv-2026-08-27",
     "jfklaw-2024-beaver-lake-advance-costs",
     "lngcanada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "mybellinghamnow-wa-leaders-pacific-link-2026-10-02",
     "newmont-tahltan-8m-red-chris-2025-05-26",
     "pmo-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-2026-10-01",
     "propublica-wilburforce-er-statement-ty2022",
     "raventrust-defend-the-treaties-campaign",
     "scc-case-42200-gitxaala",
     "theconversation-who-benefits-ksi-lisims",
     "totalenergies-news-press-releases-canada-totalenergies-signs-agreement",
     "usaspending-api-canada-pop-2025-2026-query",
     "westernlng-150m-private-placement-2025-01-14",
     "westernlng-gitxaala-benefits-agreement-2026-06-09",
     "westernlng-laxkwalaams-benefits-agreement-2026-06-09"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "quebec-interference-in-order",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/quebec-interference-in-order/",
   "title": "The interference scare, in the order it happened",
   "subtitle": "Quebec heard about a federal warning first. The dated record starts with a think tank's public blog posts, and its dated actions are on the Quebec side.",
   "summary": "Ten days before Quebec voted, a newspaper reported that Ottawa had warned of possible US help for the sovereigntist PQ. Put in order, the record shows three public posts by a small US think tank, one confirmed US trade approach with no link to them, and the governing party pitching the posts to reporters ten days before it called the intelligence service. No authority has shown any interference. Among the posts' proposals: covertly bankrolling Indigenous land lawsuits, which we check in a companion piece.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 5,
   "tags": [
    "Quebec election",
    "foreign interference",
    "DARC",
    "CAQ",
    "Parti Québécois",
    "CSIS",
    "timeline",
    "media"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-24T14:49:32Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "la-crainte-d-ingerence-dans-l-ordre",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/la-crainte-d-ingerence-dans-l-ordre/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2025-08-12-darc-our-canadian-problem-us-could-support-quebec-alberta-separatists",
     "2025-11-21-darc-trump-corollary-us-should-consider-support-for-canadian-separatists",
     "2026-02-26-darc-blog-proposes-covert-support-for-pq",
     "2026-02-pq-washington-trip-us-embassy-says-pq-requested-state-department-meeting",
     "2026-09-12-caq-team-starts-passing-darc-texts-to-journalists",
     "2026-09-22-caq-contacts-csis-about-darc-texts",
     "2026-09-25-anand-no-proof-of-us-interference-in-quebec-election",
     "2026-09-25-csis-says-it-offered-foreign-interference-briefings-to-all-quebec-parties-in-june",
     "2026-09-25-frechette-statement-no-confirmed-interference-observed",
     "2026-09-25-report-ottawa-warned-quebec-of-us-interference",
     "2026-09-27-radio-canada-caq-pitched-darc-texts-before-contacting-csis",
     "2026-09-28-frechette-says-employee-passing-darc-document-was-ill-advised",
     "2026-10-01-frechette-says-she-should-have-waited-before-reacting",
     "2026-10-21-us-embassy-fact-sheet-alleges-canadian-interference-us-politics",
     "2026-10-23-carney-no-merit-us-embassy-interference-claims",
     "2026-spring-us-approach-to-quebec-on-tariffs-bypassing-ottawa"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P10"
    ],
    "source": [
     "cbc-cp-csis-contacted-interference-claims-2026-09-25",
     "cbc-yahoo-2026-10-23-carney-no-merit-interference-claims",
     "cp24-quebec-election-possible-us-interference-2026-09-25",
     "darc-centrifugal-strategy-2026-02-26",
     "darc-our-canadian-problem-2025-08-12",
     "darc-trump-corollary-2025-11-21",
     "natpost-yahoo-caq-interference-bombshell-dud-2026-09-28",
     "noovo-cp-employe-caq-coulage-reste-en-poste-2026-09-28",
     "noovo-cp-frechette-admet-aurait-du-attendre-2026-10-01",
     "noovo-cp-frechette-autonomiste-2026-09-11",
     "noovo-cp-pspp-demande-rencontre-departement-etat-2026-10-03",
     "noovo-frechette-carney-ingerence-2026-09-25",
     "radiocanada-caq-scrs-ingerence-chronologie-2026-09-27",
     "radiocanada-en-direct-jour-38-2026-10-03",
     "radiocanada-tirs-groupes-leadership-frechette-2026-09-26",
     "rc-allegations-ingerence-americaine-2026-09-25",
     "us-embassy-fact-sheet-monitoring-canadian-activities-2026-10-21"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "order-you-heard-it-in",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/order-you-heard-it-in/",
   "title": "The order you heard it in",
   "subtitle": "Carney's 'extreme tail risk' remark, and the replies that came before it",
   "summary": "Many people heard the invasion story as: Carney speaks, Washington laughs it off. The dated record runs the other way. We put the two orders side by side.",
   "series": "Tail risk",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "military risk",
    "NORAD",
    "Carney",
    "Trump",
    "media",
    "timeline"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:21:17Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "dans-l-ordre-ou-on-l-a-appris",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/dans-l-ordre-ou-on-l-a-appris/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2025-01-07-at-mar-a-lago-trump-rules-out-military-force-but-says-he-would-use",
     "2025-02-09-waltz-dont-think-theres-any-plans-to-invade-canada",
     "2025-05-04-trump-mtp-force-against-canada-highly-unlikely-greenland-not-ruled-out",
     "2025-09-29-hoekstra-if-canada-says-no-norad-different-direction",
     "2026-01-03-us-military-captures-maduro-in-caracas",
     "2026-01-06-leavitt-military-always-an-option-greenland",
     "2026-01-20-globe-caf-modelled-hypothetical-us-invasion",
     "2026-01-26-hoekstra-norad-would-have-to-be-altered-thats-crazy-were-not-a-threat",
     "2026-09-02-paparo-invading-canada-utterly-preposterous-victoria",
     "2026-09-23-carney-nyt-extreme-tail-risk-us-military-action",
     "2026-09-25-dunleavy-zero-chance-us-invades-canada-banff"
    ],
    "hypothesis": [
     "risk"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P17",
     "P20"
    ],
    "source": [
     "cbc-brewster-invasion-contingency-plans-2026-09-24",
     "cbc-cp-carney-nyt-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "cbc-hoekstra-norad-altered-luke-afb-2026-01",
     "cnbc-leavitt-greenland-military-option-2026-01-06",
     "cp24-ctv-live-carney-nyt-reactions-2026-09-24",
     "ctv-cp-dunleavy-zero-chance-banff-2026-09-25",
     "eurasiantimes-canada-modelled-guerrilla-fight-carney-2026-09-25",
     "france24-afp-canada-models-us-invasion-2026-01-20",
     "globe-caf-models-us-invasion-2026-01-20",
     "globe-paparo-preposterous-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "globe-white-house-trump-protected-canada-2026-09-24",
     "hub-hoekstra-norad-different-direction-2025-09-29",
     "maple-paparo-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "nbc-mtp-trump-transcript-2025-05-04",
     "nbc-waltz-no-plans-invade-canada-2025-02-09",
     "nyt-carney-interview-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "panow-cp-defence-minister-downplays-2026-09-24",
     "trump-maralago-presser-2025-01-07-factbase"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "the-forecast",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/the-forecast/",
   "title": "The forecast",
   "subtitle": "Canada is selling more of its resources abroad, and the US is still getting more. Why we expect both to continue, and how sure we are.",
   "summary": "Canada more than tripled its oil sales outside the US in two years, and the US still got more Canadian oil. Our main forecast, 'both sides win', expects both countries to come out ahead by 2034. Corrected: the 81% we first gave it counted only the US side. Counting the US side by supply and Canada's side by income, it comes out about the same if today's tariffs fade the way past US tariffs did, and about 7% if they never end; either way, the war years leave Canada behind over the decade.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "forecast",
    "outcome odds",
    "oil",
    "natural gas",
    "uranium",
    "electricity",
    "pipelines",
    "volume model",
    "both sides win"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "la-prevision",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/la-prevision/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "ca-crude-exports-non-us-kbd",
     "ca-crude-exports-to-us-kbd"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-02-01-eo-14193-ieepa-sets-a-25-tariff-on-canadian-goods-and-10-on-canadian",
     "2025-02-07-wright-cnbc-dismisses-canada-shipping-oil-west-as-hard-and-small",
     "2025-04-28-federal-election-carney-s-liberals-win-169-seats-a-minority-after-a",
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2025-06-26-bill-c-5-one-canadian-economy-act-including-the-building-canada-act",
     "2025-06-30-lng-canada-first-cargo",
     "2026-07-02-canada-and-alberta-advance-the-west-coast-pipeline-proposal-and-the",
     "2026-07-31-enbridge-postpones-mainline-optimization-phase-2",
     "2026-08-18-reported-us-asks-a-right-of-first-refusal-on-canadian-critical",
     "2026-08-21-carney-tells-his-negotiators-to-walk-away-after-late-us-demands",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision",
     "2026-10-01-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-building-canada-act",
     "2026-10-24-british-columbia-general-election-vote"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "bc-bill-15",
     "c-39",
     "c-5",
     "mega-deduction",
     "on-bill-5"
    ],
    "hypothesis": [
     "outcome"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P4",
     "P5",
     "P8"
    ],
    "project": [
     "cedar-lng",
     "chpe",
     "denison-phoenix",
     "enbridge-mlo-phase-1",
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "lng-canada-phase-1",
     "necec",
     "nexgen-rook-i",
     "prairie-connector",
     "tmx-dra",
     "west-coast-oil-pipeline",
     "woodfibre-lng"
    ],
    "source": [
     "avangrid-necec-complete",
     "blakes-insights-u-s-declines-to-renew-cusma-at-first-joint-review",
     "canada-c5-introduced-2025-06-06",
     "cbc-how-trade-talks-fell-apart-2026-08-24",
     "cdev-tmx-commercial-service-2024-05-01",
     "century-aluminum-10q-q2-2026",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2019-01-2024-12",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2024-01-2026-07",
     "cer-electricity-trade-summary-2026-09-25",
     "cer-energy-futures-2026-data",
     "cer-rec-en-data-analysis-energy-markets-market-snapshots-2026-market-s",
     "cer-snapshot-2025-canada-us-energy-trade-2026-05-27",
     "chpe-completion",
     "commerce-proc10984-adjustment-procedures-2026-04-23",
     "cp-fact-file-viral-list-us-demands-lethbridgenewsnow-2026-08-25",
     "denison-phoenix-fid-2026-02-24",
     "eia-us-crude-imports-from-canada-mcrimusca2",
     "electra-20f-fy2025",
     "enbridge-mlo-phase1-fid-123867",
     "fca-gitxaala-v-canada-2016-fca-187",
     "finance-canada-tmx-purchase-speech-2018-05-29",
     "ford-nemaska-lithium-hydroxide-2023-05-22",
     "fr-proc-10947-2025-06-03",
     "fr-proc-11045-2026-07-20",
     "fr-proc-9893-2019-05-19",
     "globalnews-enbridge-mainline-postponed-2026-07",
     "hellenicshippingnews-platts-rofr-impossible-experts-2026-08",
     "kinder-morgan-tmx-suspends-spending-2018-04-08",
     "lng-canada-fid-2018-10-01",
     "lngcanada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "nexgen-offtake-us-utility-2025-08",
     "nmg-government-of-canada-offtake",
     "northcliff-sisson-fs-update-2026-08-31",
     "pm-carney-launches-major-projects-office-2025-08-29",
     "pm-carney-remarks-c5-passage-2025-06-20",
     "pm-trudeau-pipeline-announcement-2016-11-29",
     "pmet-cv5-feasibility-powerco-2025-10-20",
     "sask-src-realloys-offtake-2025-12-08",
     "scc-reference-impact-assessment-act-2023-scc-23",
     "semiconductortoday-dow-gallium-alcoa-wagerup-2026-09-01",
     "shell-lng-canada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "south-bow-q2-2026-results-2026-08-05",
     "statcan-cimt-exports-hs6-2026-07",
     "tc-energy-keystone-xl-termination-2021-06-09",
     "teck-frontier-withdrawal-letter-2020-02-23",
     "transcanada-energy-east-termination-2017-10-05",
     "un-comtrade-us-imports-hs7601-2016-2026",
     "usgs-mcs2026-aluminum",
     "usgs-mis-aluminum-2024-12",
     "usgs-mis-aluminum-2025-12",
     "ustr-about-policy-offices-press-office-press-releases-2026-july",
     "vianode-gm-supply-agreement-2025-01-16",
     "wright-cnbc-transcript-2025-02-07"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "quebec-votes",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/quebec-votes/",
   "title": "Quebec votes: the build-out stays, the fast track is in doubt",
   "subtitle": "Whoever wins on October 5, Quebec keeps building hydro, mining and power lines south. What the vote changes is who decides, and how fast.",
   "summary": "Every party likely to govern Quebec after October 5 backs more hydro and mining, and the new power lines to New York and New England are already running. The vote decides narrower things: whether Quebec revives its lapsed fast-track bill (only the CAQ, projected at zero seats, promises to), how the non-binding Churchill Falls deal is finished, and how a likely PQ government treats Ottawa's fast-track laws. Our forecast that more Canadian resources reach the US barely moves.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 3,
   "tags": [
    "Quebec election",
    "Parti Québécois",
    "Bill 5",
    "fast-track laws",
    "Churchill Falls",
    "Hydro-Québec",
    "electricity",
    "critical minerals",
    "C-5",
    "C-39",
    "referendum",
    "both sides win"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T04:35:21Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "le-quebec-aux-urnes",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/le-quebec-aux-urnes/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "churchill-falls-hq-price-cents"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2026-06-10-quebec-bill-5-dies-on-the-order-paper",
     "2026-08-17-ottawa-pledges-up-to-10b-for-churchill-falls-gull-island",
     "2026-09-03-pq-promises-faster-mining-permits",
     "2026-09-07-st-pierre-plamondon-wont-tear-up-churchill-deal",
     "2026-09-17-nl-house-of-assembly-backs-churchill-falls-deal-21-18",
     "2026-09-25-report-ottawa-warned-quebec-of-us-interference",
     "2026-spring-us-approach-to-quebec-on-tariffs-bypassing-ottawa"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-39",
     "c-5",
     "churchill-falls-dcia-2026",
     "qc-bill-5"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P12",
     "P7",
     "P9"
    ],
    "project": [
     "chpe",
     "necec"
    ],
    "source": [
     "alcoa-10q-q2-2025",
     "assnat-bill-5-page",
     "assnat-journal-debats-2026-02-17",
     "avangrid-necec-complete",
     "caq-q5-pledge-2026-09-09",
     "century-aluminum-10q-q2-2026",
     "cer-electricity-trade-summary-2026-09-25",
     "cer-energy-futures-2026-data",
     "chpe-completion",
     "churchill-falls-dcia-2026-08-17",
     "churchill-falls-hq-18-k-2025",
     "cp-granbyexpress-motion-marinvest-2026-02",
     "fr-proc-10947-2025-06-03",
     "fr-proc-11045-2026-07-20",
     "fr-proc-9893-2019-05-19",
     "hq-labrador-release-2026-08-17",
     "lemanic-innus-churchill-2026-08-17",
     "mpo-labrador-trough",
     "nlgov-churchill-falls-agreement-2026-08-17",
     "nmg-government-of-canada-offtake",
     "nmg-panasonic-becancour-2026-02-25",
     "noovo-pspp-churchill-2026-09-07",
     "pcq-plateforme-2026",
     "plq-engagements-2026",
     "pq-abitibi-regions-2026-09-03",
     "pq-livre-bleu-2026",
     "pq-no-referendum-before-2029-2026-08-18",
     "qc-referendum-act-c-64-1",
     "qc125-projection-2026-09-28",
     "qs-plateforme-2026",
     "quebec-meie-portrait-aluminium-2026",
     "rc-allegations-ingerence-americaine-2026-09-25",
     "riotinto-q2-2026-operations-review",
     "statcan-cimt-exports-hs6-2026-07",
     "statcan-table-12-10-0175",
     "un-comtrade-us-imports-hs7601-2016-2026"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "nobody-saw-it-coming",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/nobody-saw-it-coming/",
   "title": "An awkward response",
   "subtitle": "Before the tariffs, Washington said Canada couldn't build, and analysts said any building would point away from the US. Within months Canada passed fast-track laws, and oil to the US stayed above its 2023 level. Nobody in Washington called both.",
   "summary": "Within five months of the first US tariff order, three Canadian legislatures passed fast-track laws, and oil going to the US stayed above its 2023 level despite a dip in 2025. Before it happened, US officials said Canada couldn't build, analysts expected any building to turn away from the US, and Congress wanted building by agreement. We found no US forecast of both halves together, which makes the build-out a result to explain, not a truism.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 2,
   "tags": [
    "foresight",
    "predictions",
    "Chris Wright",
    "Pete Hoekstra",
    "think tanks",
    "Congress",
    "pipelines",
    "C-5",
    "fast-track laws",
    "both sides win"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-15T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "personne-n-avait-predit-les-deux-volets",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/personne-n-avait-predit-les-deux-volets/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "ca-crude-exports-non-us-kbd",
     "ca-crude-exports-to-us-kbd"
    ],
    "claim": [
     "outcome-not-obvious-in-advance"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2023-project-2025-mandate-calls-for-hemispheric-energy-policy-with-canada",
     "2024-11-27-afpm-us-refiners-depend-on-canadian-crude-ask-energy-exclusion",
     "2025-01-30-atlantic-council-webster-tariffs-push-partners-to-diversify-including-china",
     "2025-02-07-wright-cnbc-dismisses-canada-shipping-oil-west-as-hard-and-small",
     "2025-02-24-aei-dueck-51st-state-talk-fuels-anti-americanism-and-a-liberal-win",
     "2025-03-31-csis-hernandez-roy-canada-talks-coastal-infrastructure-us-could-lose-heavy-crude",
     "2025-04-07-miran-hudson-remarks-five-ways-partners-can-share-the-burden",
     "2025-04-29-cfr-alden-carney-promised-to-diversify-with-new-infrastructure",
     "2025-05-07-aei-election-recap-olsen-no-resources-in-trump-asks-tronnes-kick-in-the-butt",
     "2025-10-07-carney-s-second-white-house-visit",
     "2025-11-27-canadaalberta-mou-path-to-a-1m-bbl-day-bitumen-pipeline-to-the-bc",
     "2026-07-20-hoekstra-edmonton-burgum-wright-restrained-we-need-oil",
     "2026-07-31-enbridge-postpones-mainline-optimization-phase-2",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "bc-bill-15",
     "c-5",
     "on-bill-5"
    ],
    "project": [
     "enbridge-mlo-phase-1"
    ],
    "source": [
     "aei-canadian-election-recap-2025-05-07",
     "aei-dueck-canada-trump-admin-part2",
     "aei-dueck-canada-trump-admin-part3",
     "afpm-potential-north-american-tariffs",
     "atlanticcouncil-tariffs-energy-dominance",
     "cbc-hoekstra-pnwer-most-compelling-oil-2026-07-20",
     "cbc-trump-davos-oil-gas-2025-01-23",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2019-01-2024-12",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2024-01-2026-07",
     "cer-rec-en-data-analysis-energy-markets-market-snapshots-2026-market-s",
     "cfr-alden-carney-election-2025",
     "congress-hr3062-119-promoting-cross-border-energy-infrastructure-act",
     "congress-s1485-119-north-american-energy-act",
     "congress-s23-118-promoting-cross-border-energy-infrastructure-act",
     "congress-s989-118-north-american-energy-act",
     "cpac-hoekstra-pnwer-edmonton-2026-07-20",
     "csis-effects-tariff-threats-canada-mexico",
     "eia-us-crude-imports-from-canada-mcrimusca2",
     "enbridge-mlo-phase1-fid-123867",
     "eo14193-canada-2025-02-01",
     "fr-proc-10947-2025-06-03",
     "fr-proc-10962-copper-2025-07-30",
     "globalnews-enbridge-mainline-postponed-2026-07",
     "globe-carney-offered-double-oil-exports-2026-07-21",
     "heritage-antoni-tariff-critics-overblown-2025-02-04",
     "miran-hudson-remarks-2025-04-07-whitehouse",
     "nationalpost-hoekstra-encouraged-energy-pact-2025-12-09",
     "pm-carney-launches-major-projects-office-2025-08-29",
     "pmo-lng-canada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "project2025-mandate-for-leadership-2023",
     "statcan-cimt-exports-hs6-2026-07",
     "truthsocial-status-29396",
     "wright-cnbc-transcript-2025-02-07",
     "yahoo-cp-carney-offered-nearly-double-oil-2026-07-20"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "why-we-test-unlikely-explanations",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/why-we-test-unlikely-explanations/",
   "title": "Why we test an explanation we don't believe",
   "subtitle": "Why we give an unlikely explanation its best case, and what testing it has turned up so far.",
   "summary": "This journal deliberately tests a speculative explanation it doesn't believe: that Washington foresaw and wanted the way Canada responded. The unlikely explanation decides where to look; the evidence decides the verdict. So far the graded events that tell the readings apart lean clearly the other way, and the searches it prompted found things that hold whatever anyone intended: no forecast of what actually happened, no hidden US money behind the lawsuits, and no choreography in the provocations.",
   "series": "Method",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "method",
    "Occam's razor",
    "speculative explanations",
    "predictions",
    "odds",
    "prediction markets",
    "litigation funding",
    "provocations",
    "foresight"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-24T14:49:32Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "pourquoi-tester-une-explication-improbable",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/pourquoi-tester-une-explication-improbable/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2026-06-09-ksi-lisims-challenges-withdrawn-after-western-lng-benefit-agreements"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P10",
     "P14",
     "P6"
    ],
    "source": [
     "data-litigation-funding-funders-coded-csv",
     "data-provocations-provocations-events-csv",
     "data-provocations-timing-test-results-csv",
     "leger-omnibus-canada-us-trade-war-2026-08"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "tail-risk-tracker",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/tail-risk-tracker/",
   "title": "What would have to change first",
   "subtitle": "A standing tracker of the extreme tail risk of US military action against Canada, and the thirteen warning signs we watch",
   "summary": "Prime Minister Carney called it plain risk management to look at extreme tail risks. We track one of them: US military action against Canada. Our odds are very low. Here are the warning signs that would come first, where each stands today, what US officials have said, and how we will update this page.",
   "series": "Tail risk",
   "series_order": 2,
   "tags": [
    "tail risk",
    "military",
    "NORAD",
    "United States",
    "warning signs",
    "predictions"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:21:17Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "suivi-du-risque-extreme",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/suivi-du-risque-extreme/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2025-02-09-waltz-dont-think-theres-any-plans-to-invade-canada",
     "2025-05-04-trump-mtp-force-against-canada-highly-unlikely-greenland-not-ruled-out",
     "2026-01-06-leavitt-military-always-an-option-greenland",
     "2026-01-12-hr7016-no-funds-for-nato-invasion-act-introduced",
     "2026-01-20-globe-caf-modelled-hypothetical-us-invasion",
     "2026-01-21-trump-davos-i-wont-use-force-greenland",
     "2026-01-26-hoekstra-norad-would-have-to-be-altered-thats-crazy-were-not-a-threat",
     "2026-05-18-pentagon-pauses-permanent-joint-board-on-defence",
     "2026-09-02-paparo-invading-canada-utterly-preposterous-victoria",
     "2026-09-23-carney-nyt-extreme-tail-risk-us-military-action",
     "2026-09-25-dunleavy-zero-chance-us-invades-canada-banff",
     "2026-09-29-carney-no-response-to-navarro-and-trump",
     "2026-09-29-navarro-warns-canada-against-election-interference-maine-michigan"
    ],
    "hypothesis": [
     "risk"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P17",
     "P18",
     "P19",
     "P20"
    ],
    "source": [
     "cbc-cp-carney-nyt-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "cbc-hoekstra-norad-altered-luke-afb-2026-01",
     "cbc-pentagon-pauses-joint-defence-board-2026-05-18",
     "cbc-us-orders-kyiv-embassy-families-leave-2022-01-23",
     "cnbc-leavitt-greenland-military-option-2026-01-06",
     "cp24-ctv-live-carney-nyt-reactions-2026-09-24",
     "cp24-navarro-lobbyists-election-interference-2026-09-29",
     "csis-russias-gamble-ukraine-2022-01",
     "ctv-cp-dunleavy-zero-chance-banff-2026-09-25",
     "factcheck-russian-denials-2022-02-24",
     "france24-afp-canada-models-us-invasion-2026-01-20",
     "globe-paparo-preposterous-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "globe-white-house-trump-protected-canada-2026-09-24",
     "govinfo-hr7016-no-funds-for-nato-invasion-act",
     "guillot-hasc-posture-statement-2026-03-17",
     "maple-paparo-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "nbc-mtp-transcript-2025-02-09",
     "nbc-mtp-trump-transcript-2025-05-04",
     "npr-trump-davos-wont-use-force-2026-01-21",
     "nyt-carney-interview-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "reuters-russia-blood-supplies-2022-01-28",
     "state-dept-travel-advisory-canada-level-1",
     "travel-gc-ca-us-advisory-2026-09-28",
     "x-stevis-gridneff-thread-carney-2026-09-23"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "who-pays",
   "lang": "en",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/who-pays/",
   "title": "Who pays",
   "subtitle": "Both countries can come out ahead while many of their people pay. Who carries the cost of the trade war, with numbers, and what the numbers can't tell us.",
   "summary": "Countries coming out ahead is not everyone coming out ahead. Steelworkers, BC sawmill towns, auto-parts workers, aluminum processors, taxpayers and First Nations carry costs; so do US aluminum buyers, distillers and border towns. Manufacturing jobs are about where they were a year ago, but losses are concentrated, and many closures cite timber supply or the end of US EV support alongside or ahead of tariffs.",
   "series": "Who wins, who pays",
   "series_order": 4,
   "tags": [
    "who pays",
    "costs",
    "jobs",
    "steel",
    "aluminum",
    "lumber",
    "autos",
    "consumers",
    "taxpayers",
    "First Nations",
    "United States",
    "both sides win"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "qui-paie",
    "lang": "fr",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/qui-paie/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "who-pays-algoma-us-share-of-shipments",
     "who-pays-seph-july-auto-parts-jobs",
     "who-pays-seph-july-vehicle-assembly-jobs",
     "who-pays-seph-july-wood-products-jobs",
     "who-pays-us-spirits-exports-to-canada-mar-dec",
     "who-pays-us-wine-exports-to-canada"
    ],
    "claim": [
     "outcome-build-out-pays-trade-war-doesnt"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-12-01-algoma-issues-1005-layoff-notices",
     "2026-08-12-stellantis-tells-unifor-it-may-sell-brampton-plant",
     "2026-08-22-section-338-tariffs-hit-canadian-plywood-mdf-and-other-wood-products",
     "2026-09-28-stelco-to-idle-hamilton-cold-rolled-and-coated-lines",
     "2026-10-01-afn-pacific-link-listing-12-days-after-consultation-deadline",
     "2026-10-01-ubcic-rejects-pacific-link-vows-court-fight",
     "2026-10-14-commerce-softwood-ar7-final-all-others-24-75"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-39",
     "mega-deduction"
    ],
    "source": [
     "alcoa-10k-2025",
     "algoma-40f-2025-aif-2026-03-11",
     "algoma-q1-2026-results-2026-05-12",
     "algoma-q2-2026-results-2026-07-29",
     "aptn-afn-warns-c39-west-coast-pipeline-2026-09",
     "boc-mpr-2025-10-29",
     "boc-opening-statement-2026-09-02",
     "brp-q2-fy2027-results-2026-09-03",
     "canada-en-department-finance-news-2026-08-canada-announces-targeted",
     "canada-en-department-finance-news-2026-09-government-of-canada",
     "canfor-fox-creek-closure-2026-07-28",
     "cbc-chiefs-ontario-consultation-funding-2025-10-21",
     "cbc-honda-suspends-ev-plant-2026-05",
     "cbp-csms-70050970-2026-09-28",
     "cdev-annual-report-2025",
     "cdev-first-indigenous-loan-guarantee-westcoast",
     "ceefc-letl-update-2026-08-25",
     "discus-2025-spirits-exports-report-2026-03-31",
     "domtar-crofton-closure-2025-12-02",
     "esdc-ei-measures-extended-2026-03-20",
     "fr-2026-21286-softwood-cvd-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "fr-2026-21296-softwood-ad-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "gac-softwood-lumber-faq-2026-08-05",
     "globalnews-cp-pacific-link-indigenous-consultation-2026-10-01",
     "gm-8k-ev-charges-2025-10-14",
     "honda-ev-strategy-losses-2026-03-12",
     "ised-qp-steel-aluminum-2025-09",
     "lethbridgenewsnow-cp-quickquotes-pacific-link-2026-10-01",
     "lpc-canada-strong-fiscal-costing-plan-2025-04-19",
     "molson-coors-q2-2026-8k-2026-08-06",
     "nyfed-who-pays-2025-tariffs-2026-02-12",
     "pbo-tmx-2024-11-08",
     "pembina-cedar-lng-fid-2024-06-25",
     "pmo-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-2026-10-01",
     "riotinto-fy2025-results-2026-02-19",
     "seu-2026-annex1",
     "spirits-canada-statement-2026-09-09",
     "statcan-employment-us-demand-2025-12-22",
     "statcan-lfs-august-2026-2026-09-04",
     "statcan-lfs-june-2026-2026-07-10",
     "statcan-seph-14100201-2026-07",
     "statcan-travel-to-us-year-in-review-2026-07-22",
     "theskeena-pacific-link-designated-2026-10-02",
     "tmc-q4-2025-results-2026-05-01",
     "unifor-cami-brightdrop-cancellation-2025-10-21",
     "westfraser-capacity-reductions-2025-11-06",
     "wiley-s338-canada-tariffs-2026-07-27",
     "wine-institute-one-year-later-2026-03-04"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "le-bilan-net-des-etats-unis",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/le-bilan-net-des-etats-unis/",
   "title": "Le bilan net des États-Unis",
   "subtitle": "La vague de construction du Canada dans les ressources rapporte un peu aux États-Unis; la guerre commerciale leur coûte davantage. Dans notre modèle, les États-Unis ne s'en sortent gagnants par rapport à 2024 d'ici 2034 que si presque tous les dommages tarifaires actuels ont disparu, et la décennie les laisse perdants dans tous nos tirages.",
   "summary": "Le bilan net du Canada ne comptait pas le côté américain. En le comptant sur les mêmes tirages simulés : d'ici 2034, la vague de construction du Canada dans les ressources ajoute environ 1,5 milliard de dollars américains par année au revenu des Américains, surtout sous forme de profits des propriétaires américains du pétrole, du gaz et du GNL canadiens, mais la guerre commerciale coûte davantage. Les États-Unis s'en sortent gagnants, sauf s'il reste environ 10 % des dommages tarifaires actuels, contre environ 57 % pour le Canada. Si les tarifs actuels s'estompent comme l'ont fait les tarifs américains passés, les États-Unis s'en sortent gagnants dans environ 14 % de nos tirages, et le Canada dans 98 %. Sur l'ensemble de la période de 2025 à 2034, les États-Unis sont perdants dans tous nos tirages. Dans un cas comme dans l'autre, c'est peu pour les États-Unis : environ 0,006 % de leur économie en 2034. La vague de construction profite aux deux pays; la guerre commerciale, non.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 8,
   "tags": [
    "gain net des États-Unis",
    "coûts",
    "tarifs",
    "contre-tarifs",
    "boycottage",
    "pétrole lourd",
    "gaz naturel",
    "GNL",
    "propriétaires américains",
    "durée des tarifs",
    "les deux pays y gagnent",
    "modèle"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": null,
   "translation": {
    "slug": "what-the-us-nets",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/what-the-us-nets/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "who-pays-us-spirits-exports-to-canada-mar-dec",
     "who-pays-us-wine-exports-to-canada"
    ],
    "claim": [
     "outcome-build-out-pays-trade-war-doesnt",
     "outcome-us-income-build-out-small-war-costs-more"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-02-01-eo-14193-ieepa-sets-a-25-tariff-on-canadian-goods-and-10-on-canadian",
     "2025-03-04-provincial-liquor-boards-including-the-lcbo-and-saq-pull-us-alcohol",
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2026-02-24-ieepa-tariffs-rescinded-ending-certain-tariff-actions",
     "2026-07-22-statcan-2025-return-trips-from-us-down-25pct-spending-down-3-3b",
     "2026-09-08-canadian-counter-tariffs-take-effect-on-canada-s-own-list-of-c-27-6b",
     "2026-10-01-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-building-canada-act"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-5",
     "s338-proclamations"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "lng-canada-phase-2"
    ],
    "source": [
     "bea-ita-services-table-2-3-canada-2026-07-07",
     "bea-nipa-flat-files-gdp-2026-10-05",
     "cbo-61389-tariff-effects-letter-2025-06-04",
     "cbo-data-github-economic-projections-2026-02",
     "discus-2025-spirits-exports-report-2026-03-31",
     "eia-company-level-imports-2024",
     "eia-landed-costs-imported-crude-streams-annual",
     "eia-ng-exports-by-country-annual",
     "eia-ng-imports-by-country-annual",
     "everycrsreport-reports-r49349-html",
     "nyfed-who-pays-2025-tariffs-2026-02-12",
     "piie-us-tariffs-canada-mexico-hurt-all-three-2025-02-04",
     "pwbm-economic-effects-trump-tariffs-2025-04-10",
     "statcan-cimt-imports-capital-goods-2023-2025",
     "statcan-table-33-10-0570",
     "statcan-table-36-10-0222-gdp-expenditure-provincial",
     "taxfoundation-trump-tariffs-tracker-2026-10-05",
     "usda-ascf-payment-rates-2026-05-29",
     "usda-fba-payment-rates-2025-12-31",
     "ustreasury-shc-2024-us-holdings-foreign-securities",
     "westernlng-150m-private-placement-2025-01-14",
     "wine-institute-one-year-later-2026-03-04",
     "yale-budget-lab-state-of-us-tariffs-2026-08-24"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "l-opposition-arrete-t-elle-les-projets",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/l-opposition-arrete-t-elle-les-projets/",
   "title": "L'opposition arrête-t-elle les projets?",
   "subtitle": "Dans le registre jusqu'ici, les projets de ressources qui se sont heurtés à une opposition organisée des Premières Nations ont atteint la construction à peu près aussi souvent que les autres. Les échantillons sont minuscules, et le registre laisse notre prévision là où elle était.",
   "summary": "Nous nous attendions à ce que l'opposition organisée des Premières Nations, des Métis et des Inuits réduise les chances qu'un projet soit construit, et nous l'avons vérifié avant de l'intégrer à notre prévision. Rien n'en ressort : 4 des 7 projets approuvés qui y faisaient face ont atteint la construction, contre 1 sur 2 sans opposition, et 2 sur 4 contre 2 sur 8 à l'étape de l'évaluation. Des échantillons minuscules et un résultat nul. Selon la règle que nous avions fixée d'abord, le registre entrerait maintenant dans notre prévision pour deux projets; la prévision suit plutôt la règle d'une étude plus large des projets passés, qui ne décèle aucun effet de l'opposition, si bien que rien ne change.",
   "series": "Qui détient le veto",
   "series_order": 2,
   "tags": [
    "qui détient le veto",
    "Premières Nations",
    "Métis",
    "Inuits",
    "opposition",
    "taux de base",
    "prévision",
    "Trans Mountain",
    "Coastal GasLink",
    "Northern Gateway",
    "Mary River",
    "Ksi Lisims LNG",
    "Kudz Ze Kayah",
    "LNG Canada phase 2"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T04:35:21Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "does-opposition-stop-projects",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/does-opposition-stop-projects/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "claim": [
     "mechanism-no-veto-deal-or-override",
     "mechanism-opposition-no-construction-gap"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2016-06-23-federal-court-of-appeal-quashes-northern-gateway-approval",
     "2016-11-29-cabinet-directs-neb-to-dismiss-northern-gateway",
     "2018-08-30-fca-quashes-trans-mountain-expansion-approval",
     "2020-01-05-wetsuweten-hereditary-chiefs-evict-coastal-gaslink",
     "2020-04-24-alberta-court-of-appeal-sets-aside-rigel-approval",
     "2021-10-22-altagas-cancels-alton-gas-storage-project",
     "2022-11-16-minister-rejects-mary-river-phase-2",
     "2024-05-01-trans-mountain-expansion-enters-commercial-service",
     "2024-11-18-coastal-gaslink-declared-commercially-in-service",
     "2025-12-02-gitanyow-letter-asks-banks-not-to-finance-ksi-lisims",
     "2026-03-05-cnsc-construction-licence-for-nexgen-rook-i",
     "2026-04-10-kudz-ze-kayah-mine-re-approved-over-kaska-objection",
     "2026-09-29-wetsuweten-chiefs-and-groups-oppose-lng-canada-phase-2",
     "2026-10-01-lng-canada-phase-2-early-construction-begins"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng"
    ],
    "source": [
     "abca-2020-163-fort-mckay-v-prosper",
     "aer-co-2021-003-prosper-rigel-costs",
     "cbc-alton-gas-project-cancelled-2021-10-22",
     "cbc-kudz-ze-kayah-approved-again-2026-04-14",
     "cbc-minister-says-no-to-baffinland-expansion-2022-11-16",
     "cdev-tmx-commercial-service-2024-05-01",
     "cnsc-rook-i-licence-2026-03",
     "fca-gitxaala-v-canada-2016-fca-187",
     "northernview-lng-canada-phase-2-construction-begins-2026-10-08",
     "pbi-gitanyow-banks-letter-ksi-lisims-2025-12-02",
     "pm-trudeau-pipeline-announcement-2016-11-29",
     "ravencoast-lng-canada-phase-2-releases-pro-con-2026-09-29",
     "tc-energy-2024-annual-information-form"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "le-bilan-net-du-canada",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/le-bilan-net-du-canada/",
   "title": "Le bilan net du Canada",
   "subtitle": "Les 81 % de notre prévision pour « les deux pays y gagnent » ne comptaient que le côté américain. En comptant celui du Canada : d'ici 2034, il s'en sort gagnant, sauf si la plupart des tarifs actuels sont encore en place, mais la décennie, prise dans son ensemble, le laisse perdant.",
   "summary": "Notre prévision accordait environ 81 % au scénario où le Canada et les États-Unis s'en sortent tous deux gagnants d'ici 2034, mais ce chiffre ne comptait que le côté américain. En comptant le côté du Canada : en 2034, le Canada s'en sort gagnant, sauf si environ 57 % des dommages tarifaires actuels sont encore en place; si les tarifs s'estompent comme l'ont fait les tarifs américains passés, notre modèle lui donne 98 %, et s'ils ne prennent jamais fin, environ 9 %. Sur l'ensemble de la décennie, les années de guerre laissent le Canada perdant, typiquement d'environ 89 milliards de dollars. La vague de construction profite aux deux pays; la guerre commerciale, non.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 7,
   "tags": [
    "gain net du Canada",
    "coûts",
    "tarifs",
    "durée des tarifs",
    "entente commerciale",
    "Pacific Link",
    "GNL",
    "Premières Nations",
    "argent public",
    "émissions",
    "les deux pays y gagnent",
    "modèle"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-15T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "what-canada-nets",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/what-canada-nets/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "claim": [
     "outcome-build-out-pays-trade-war-doesnt"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-02-01-eo-14193-ieepa-sets-a-25-tariff-on-canadian-goods-and-10-on-canadian",
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2026-02-24-ieepa-tariffs-rescinded-ending-certain-tariff-actions",
     "2026-06-04-pbo-efo-june-2026-tariffs-permanent",
     "2026-08-18-tentative-deal",
     "2026-08-21-carney-tells-his-negotiators-to-walk-away-after-late-us-demands",
     "2026-09-08-canadian-counter-tariffs-take-effect-on-canada-s-own-list-of-c-27-6b",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision",
     "2026-10-01-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-building-canada-act"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-5",
     "s338-proclamations"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "lng-canada-phase-2",
     "west-coast-oil-pipeline"
    ],
    "source": [
     "boc-mpr-2025-07-30",
     "boc-mpr-2025-10-29",
     "boc-mpr-2026-07-15-report",
     "cbc-how-trade-talks-fell-apart-2026-08-24",
     "crs-r42789-softwood-lumber-2018",
     "eccc-social-cost-ghg-interim-guidance",
     "fr-2026-21286-softwood-cvd-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "fr-2026-21296-softwood-ad-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "fr-proc-9893-2019-05-19",
     "gac-softwood-lumber-faq-2026-08-05",
     "lngcanada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "pbo-efo-june-2026-2026-06-04",
     "pmo-lng-canada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "pmo-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-2026-10-01",
     "seu-2026-annex1",
     "tbs-cost-benefit-analysis-guide",
     "westernlng-150m-private-placement-2025-01-14"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "pas-de-veto-une-seule-issue",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/pas-de-veto-une-seule-issue/",
   "title": "Pas de veto, une seule issue",
   "subtitle": "Le droit canadien ne donne aux Premières Nations aucun veto sur les projets de ressources et ne leur offre qu'une issue : une entente. Presque toute opposition a donc l'air d'un marchandage. Le seul résultat qui tient, quelle que soit la façon de compter les cas, pointe vers les droits.",
   "summary": "Lancement d'une série sur les positions des Premières Nations, des Métis et des Inuits face à la vague de projets de ressources. La consultation ne donne aucun veto : « s'opposer, puis signer » est donc ce que le système produit, quelle que soit la motivation. Sur 132 cas, les éléments qui permettent de distinguer les motivations penchent vers les droits, et ceux qui voulaient un arrêt ou un droit de regard n'ont souvent obtenu ni l'un ni l'autre.",
   "series": "Qui détient le veto",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "qui détient le veto",
    "Premières Nations",
    "Métis",
    "Inuits",
    "obligation de consulter",
    "consentement",
    "ententes sur les retombées",
    "Ksi Lisims LNG",
    "Pessamit",
    "Mary River",
    "Tahltan",
    "Nation squamish",
    "Wolastoqey",
    "Burnaby",
    "Colombie-Britannique"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-08T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": null,
   "translation": {
    "slug": "who-holds-the-veto",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/who-holds-the-veto/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "claim": [
     "mechanism-no-veto-deal-or-override"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2016-06-23-federal-court-of-appeal-quashes-northern-gateway-approval",
     "2016-10-squamish-nation-council-selects-air-cooling-woodfibre",
     "2017-02-10-wolastoq-grand-council-remains-opposed-to-sisson",
     "2017-02-10-wolastoqey-nations-sisson-accommodation-agreement",
     "2017-04-06-bc-trans-mountain-benefits-agreement",
     "2018-08-23-scc-refuses-burnaby-leave-on-tmx-bylaws",
     "2018-08-30-fca-quashes-trans-mountain-expansion-approval",
     "2021-11-06-mittimatalik-hto-opposes-mary-river-phase-2",
     "2022-11-16-minister-rejects-mary-river-phase-2",
     "2026-01-26-tahltan-consent-and-bc-certificate-eskay-creek",
     "2026-06-09-ksi-lisims-challenges-withdrawn-after-western-lng-benefit-agreements",
     "2026-07-12-pessamit-members-reject-hydro-quebec-agreement"
    ],
    "source": [
     "baffinland-phase-2-final-written-statement-summary-2022-01-24",
     "bcgov-eskay-creek-consent-decisions-2026-01-26",
     "bcgov-red-chris-block-cave-amendment-2026-06-18",
     "bcgov-tmx-final-benefits-agreement-2017-04-08",
     "bclaws-dripa-sbc-2019-c44",
     "cbc-maliseet-sisson-mine-deal-2017-02-10",
     "cbc-metlakatla-lax-kwalaams-ksi-lisims-2026-06-09",
     "cbc-qia-rejects-mary-river-expansion-2021-03-08",
     "cbc-squamish-rejects-woodfibre-lng-deal-2026-09-22",
     "cbc-squamish-woodfibre-225m-benefits-2018-11-30",
     "cdev-tmx-commercial-service-2024-05-01",
     "fca-gitxaala-v-canada-2016-fca-187",
     "fca-tsleil-waututh-v-canada-2018-fca-153",
     "noovo-pessamit-reactions-rejet-2026-07-13",
     "nunatsiaq-community-reps-oppose-baffinland-2021-11-06",
     "pmo-trans-mountain-expansion-approved-2019-06-18",
     "radiocanada-pessamit-entente-rejetee-2026-07-12",
     "scc-haida-nation-v-bc-2004-scc-73",
     "squamish-district-wlng-agreement-declined-2026-09-22",
     "westernlng-laxkwalaams-benefits-agreement-2026-06-09",
     "woodfibre-squamish-nation-ea-agreement-2015-10-19"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "l-argent-americain-construit",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/l-argent-americain-construit/",
   "title": "Là où l'argent américain apparaît, il construit",
   "subtitle": "Un groupe de réflexion américain a proposé de financer en secret des poursuites autochtones contre des projets canadiens. Nous avons suivi l'argent américain autour de ces projets depuis janvier 2025 : tout ce que nous avons pu voir sert à les construire.",
   "summary": "Depuis janvier 2025, chaque dollar américain que nous avons pu retracer autour d'un projet canadien de ressources sert à le construire : 2,7 milliards de dollars de KKR et d'Apollo pour deux agrandissements du gazoduc Westcoast, 8 millions de dollars de Newmont à des communautés tahltanes, 25 millions de dollars américains en subventions du Pentagone, et des ententes sur les retombées à Ksi Lisims LNG, après lesquelles deux nations ont abandonné leurs contestations judiciaires. Nous n'avons trouvé d'argent américain derrière aucune poursuite de Premières Nations. La plus grande partie de l'argent qui permet de construire les projets est canadienne, l'Alberta finance une poursuite, et un financement clandestin n'apparaîtrait pas dans les registres publics.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 6,
   "tags": [
    "qui paie",
    "Premières Nations",
    "financement de litiges",
    "DARC",
    "Ksi Lisims LNG",
    "gazoduc Westcoast",
    "Pentagone",
    "Pacific Link",
    "Ecojustice",
    "RAVEN",
    "États-Unis",
    "explications spéculatives"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-07T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": null,
   "translation": {
    "slug": "us-money-builds-not-sues",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/us-money-builds-not-sues/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2022-11-07-wilburforce-grant-for-gitxaala-litigation",
     "2024-05-16-dpa-8-35m-lomiko-la-loutre",
     "2024-08-alberta-advance-costs-beaver-lake-cree-defend-the-treaties",
     "2025-05-01-dpa-15m-northcliff-sisson",
     "2025-05-26-newmont-8m-contribution-tahltan-red-chris",
     "2025-07-first-nations-alliance-buys-12-5-pct-of-westcoast",
     "2025-10-31-ecojustice-t3010-revenue-from-outside-canada-rises",
     "2025-10-metlakatla-lax-kwalaams-file-challenges-to-ksi-lisims",
     "2025-12-08-dod-second-10m-tranche-electra-dpa",
     "2026-02-26-darc-blog-proposes-covert-support-for-pq",
     "2026-06-09-ksi-lisims-challenges-withdrawn-after-western-lng-benefit-agreements",
     "2026-08-27-kkr-and-apollo-agree-to-buy-29-pct-of-westcoast",
     "2026-09-21-us-tribes-seek-to-intervene-in-gitxaala-scc-appeal",
     "2026-09-22-ottawa-offers-indigenous-groups-15-pct-of-trans-mountain",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision",
     "2026-10-01-ubcic-rejects-pacific-link-vows-court-fight",
     "2026-10-02-washington-governor-criticizes-pacific-link-listing"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-5"
    ],
    "project": [
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "west-coast-oil-pipeline"
    ],
    "source": [
     "aptn-pacific-link-first-nations-denounce-2026-10-01",
     "bnn-trans-mountain-15pct-indigenous-2026-09-22",
     "breach-elbows-up-pentagon-stakes-canadian-mines-2026-05-22",
     "cbc-metlakatla-lax-kwalaams-ksi-lisims-2026-06-09",
     "cdev-first-indigenous-loan-guarantee-westcoast",
     "cra-t3010-ecojustice-fy2024-sch6",
     "cra-t3010-ecojustice-fy2025-sch6",
     "cra-t3010-raven-2024-sch6",
     "darc-centrifugal-strategy-2026-02-26",
     "eigpartners-eigs-midocean-energy-completes-acquisition-of-interest-in",
     "enbridge-kkr-apollo-westcoast-jv-2026-08-27",
     "jfklaw-2024-beaver-lake-advance-costs",
     "lngcanada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "mybellinghamnow-wa-leaders-pacific-link-2026-10-02",
     "newmont-tahltan-8m-red-chris-2025-05-26",
     "pmo-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-2026-10-01",
     "propublica-wilburforce-er-statement-ty2022",
     "raventrust-defend-the-treaties-campaign",
     "scc-case-42200-gitxaala",
     "theconversation-who-benefits-ksi-lisims",
     "totalenergies-news-press-releases-canada-totalenergies-signs-agreement",
     "usaspending-api-canada-pop-2025-2026-query",
     "westernlng-150m-private-placement-2025-01-14",
     "westernlng-gitxaala-benefits-agreement-2026-06-09",
     "westernlng-laxkwalaams-benefits-agreement-2026-06-09"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "la-crainte-d-ingerence-dans-l-ordre",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/la-crainte-d-ingerence-dans-l-ordre/",
   "title": "La crainte d'ingérence, dans l'ordre où tout s'est passé",
   "subtitle": "Le Québec a d'abord entendu parler d'un avertissement fédéral. Le registre daté commence par les billets de blogue publics d'un groupe de réflexion, et ses gestes datés sont du côté québécois.",
   "summary": "Dix jours avant le vote au Québec, un journal a rapporté qu'Ottawa avait prévenu d'une possible aide américaine au PQ souverainiste. Remis en ordre, le registre montre trois billets publics d'un petit groupe de réflexion américain, une seule approche commerciale américaine confirmée, sans lien avec eux, et le parti au pouvoir qui proposait les billets à des journalistes dix jours avant d'appeler le service de renseignement. Aucune autorité n'a démontré d'ingérence. Parmi les propositions des billets : financer en secret des poursuites foncières autochtones, ce que nous vérifions dans un article complémentaire.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 5,
   "tags": [
    "élection québécoise",
    "ingérence étrangère",
    "DARC",
    "CAQ",
    "Parti québécois",
    "SCRS",
    "chronologie",
    "médias"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-24T14:49:32Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "quebec-interference-in-order",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/quebec-interference-in-order/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2025-08-12-darc-our-canadian-problem-us-could-support-quebec-alberta-separatists",
     "2025-11-21-darc-trump-corollary-us-should-consider-support-for-canadian-separatists",
     "2026-02-26-darc-blog-proposes-covert-support-for-pq",
     "2026-02-pq-washington-trip-us-embassy-says-pq-requested-state-department-meeting",
     "2026-09-12-caq-team-starts-passing-darc-texts-to-journalists",
     "2026-09-22-caq-contacts-csis-about-darc-texts",
     "2026-09-25-anand-no-proof-of-us-interference-in-quebec-election",
     "2026-09-25-csis-says-it-offered-foreign-interference-briefings-to-all-quebec-parties-in-june",
     "2026-09-25-frechette-statement-no-confirmed-interference-observed",
     "2026-09-25-report-ottawa-warned-quebec-of-us-interference",
     "2026-09-27-radio-canada-caq-pitched-darc-texts-before-contacting-csis",
     "2026-09-28-frechette-says-employee-passing-darc-document-was-ill-advised",
     "2026-10-01-frechette-says-she-should-have-waited-before-reacting",
     "2026-10-21-us-embassy-fact-sheet-alleges-canadian-interference-us-politics",
     "2026-10-23-carney-no-merit-us-embassy-interference-claims",
     "2026-spring-us-approach-to-quebec-on-tariffs-bypassing-ottawa"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P10"
    ],
    "source": [
     "cbc-cp-csis-contacted-interference-claims-2026-09-25",
     "cbc-yahoo-2026-10-23-carney-no-merit-interference-claims",
     "cp24-quebec-election-possible-us-interference-2026-09-25",
     "darc-centrifugal-strategy-2026-02-26",
     "darc-our-canadian-problem-2025-08-12",
     "darc-trump-corollary-2025-11-21",
     "natpost-yahoo-caq-interference-bombshell-dud-2026-09-28",
     "noovo-cp-employe-caq-coulage-reste-en-poste-2026-09-28",
     "noovo-cp-frechette-admet-aurait-du-attendre-2026-10-01",
     "noovo-cp-frechette-autonomiste-2026-09-11",
     "noovo-cp-pspp-demande-rencontre-departement-etat-2026-10-03",
     "noovo-frechette-carney-ingerence-2026-09-25",
     "radiocanada-caq-scrs-ingerence-chronologie-2026-09-27",
     "radiocanada-en-direct-jour-38-2026-10-03",
     "radiocanada-tirs-groupes-leadership-frechette-2026-09-26",
     "rc-allegations-ingerence-americaine-2026-09-25",
     "us-embassy-fact-sheet-monitoring-canadian-activities-2026-10-21"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "dans-l-ordre-ou-on-l-a-appris",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/dans-l-ordre-ou-on-l-a-appris/",
   "title": "Dans l'ordre où on l'a appris",
   "subtitle": "La déclaration de Carney sur le « risque extrême », et les réponses qui l'avaient précédée",
   "summary": "Bien des gens ont retenu l'histoire de l'invasion ainsi : Carney parle, Washington en rit. Le registre daté raconte l'inverse. Nous mettons les deux ordres côte à côte.",
   "series": "Risques peu probables",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "risque militaire",
    "NORAD",
    "Carney",
    "Trump",
    "médias",
    "chronologie"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:21:17Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "order-you-heard-it-in",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/order-you-heard-it-in/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2025-01-07-at-mar-a-lago-trump-rules-out-military-force-but-says-he-would-use",
     "2025-02-09-waltz-dont-think-theres-any-plans-to-invade-canada",
     "2025-05-04-trump-mtp-force-against-canada-highly-unlikely-greenland-not-ruled-out",
     "2025-09-29-hoekstra-if-canada-says-no-norad-different-direction",
     "2026-01-03-us-military-captures-maduro-in-caracas",
     "2026-01-06-leavitt-military-always-an-option-greenland",
     "2026-01-20-globe-caf-modelled-hypothetical-us-invasion",
     "2026-01-26-hoekstra-norad-would-have-to-be-altered-thats-crazy-were-not-a-threat",
     "2026-09-02-paparo-invading-canada-utterly-preposterous-victoria",
     "2026-09-23-carney-nyt-extreme-tail-risk-us-military-action",
     "2026-09-25-dunleavy-zero-chance-us-invades-canada-banff"
    ],
    "hypothesis": [
     "risk"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P17",
     "P20"
    ],
    "source": [
     "cbc-brewster-invasion-contingency-plans-2026-09-24",
     "cbc-cp-carney-nyt-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "cbc-hoekstra-norad-altered-luke-afb-2026-01",
     "cnbc-leavitt-greenland-military-option-2026-01-06",
     "cp24-ctv-live-carney-nyt-reactions-2026-09-24",
     "ctv-cp-dunleavy-zero-chance-banff-2026-09-25",
     "eurasiantimes-canada-modelled-guerrilla-fight-carney-2026-09-25",
     "france24-afp-canada-models-us-invasion-2026-01-20",
     "globe-caf-models-us-invasion-2026-01-20",
     "globe-paparo-preposterous-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "globe-white-house-trump-protected-canada-2026-09-24",
     "hub-hoekstra-norad-different-direction-2025-09-29",
     "maple-paparo-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "nbc-mtp-trump-transcript-2025-05-04",
     "nbc-waltz-no-plans-invade-canada-2025-02-09",
     "nyt-carney-interview-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "panow-cp-defence-minister-downplays-2026-09-24",
     "trump-maralago-presser-2025-01-07-factbase"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "la-prevision",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/la-prevision/",
   "title": "La prévision",
   "subtitle": "Le Canada vend davantage de ses ressources à l'étranger, et les États-Unis en reçoivent quand même plus. Pourquoi nous nous attendons à ce que les deux se poursuivent, et avec quelle certitude.",
   "summary": "En deux ans, le Canada a plus que triplé ses ventes de pétrole hors des États-Unis, et les États-Unis ont quand même reçu plus de pétrole canadien. Notre principale prévision, « les deux pays y gagnent », veut que chacun des deux pays en sorte gagnant d'ici 2034. Correction : les 81 % que nous lui avions d'abord attribués ne comptaient que le côté américain. En comptant le côté américain par l'approvisionnement et le côté canadien par le revenu, on arrive à peu près au même chiffre si les tarifs actuels s'estompent comme les tarifs américains passés, et à environ 7 % s'ils ne prennent jamais fin; dans les deux cas, les années de guerre commerciale laissent le Canada perdant sur la décennie.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "prévision",
    "probabilités",
    "pétrole",
    "gaz naturel",
    "uranium",
    "électricité",
    "pipelines",
    "modèle de volumes",
    "les deux pays y gagnent"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "the-forecast",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/the-forecast/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "ca-crude-exports-non-us-kbd",
     "ca-crude-exports-to-us-kbd"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-02-01-eo-14193-ieepa-sets-a-25-tariff-on-canadian-goods-and-10-on-canadian",
     "2025-02-07-wright-cnbc-dismisses-canada-shipping-oil-west-as-hard-and-small",
     "2025-04-28-federal-election-carney-s-liberals-win-169-seats-a-minority-after-a",
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2025-06-26-bill-c-5-one-canadian-economy-act-including-the-building-canada-act",
     "2025-06-30-lng-canada-first-cargo",
     "2026-07-02-canada-and-alberta-advance-the-west-coast-pipeline-proposal-and-the",
     "2026-07-31-enbridge-postpones-mainline-optimization-phase-2",
     "2026-08-18-reported-us-asks-a-right-of-first-refusal-on-canadian-critical",
     "2026-08-21-carney-tells-his-negotiators-to-walk-away-after-late-us-demands",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision",
     "2026-10-01-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-building-canada-act",
     "2026-10-24-british-columbia-general-election-vote"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "bc-bill-15",
     "c-39",
     "c-5",
     "mega-deduction",
     "on-bill-5"
    ],
    "hypothesis": [
     "outcome"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P4",
     "P5",
     "P8"
    ],
    "project": [
     "cedar-lng",
     "chpe",
     "denison-phoenix",
     "enbridge-mlo-phase-1",
     "ksi-lisims-lng",
     "lng-canada-phase-1",
     "necec",
     "nexgen-rook-i",
     "prairie-connector",
     "tmx-dra",
     "west-coast-oil-pipeline",
     "woodfibre-lng"
    ],
    "source": [
     "avangrid-necec-complete",
     "blakes-insights-u-s-declines-to-renew-cusma-at-first-joint-review",
     "canada-c5-introduced-2025-06-06",
     "cbc-how-trade-talks-fell-apart-2026-08-24",
     "cdev-tmx-commercial-service-2024-05-01",
     "century-aluminum-10q-q2-2026",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2019-01-2024-12",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2024-01-2026-07",
     "cer-electricity-trade-summary-2026-09-25",
     "cer-energy-futures-2026-data",
     "cer-rec-en-data-analysis-energy-markets-market-snapshots-2026-market-s",
     "cer-snapshot-2025-canada-us-energy-trade-2026-05-27",
     "chpe-completion",
     "commerce-proc10984-adjustment-procedures-2026-04-23",
     "cp-fact-file-viral-list-us-demands-lethbridgenewsnow-2026-08-25",
     "denison-phoenix-fid-2026-02-24",
     "eia-us-crude-imports-from-canada-mcrimusca2",
     "electra-20f-fy2025",
     "enbridge-mlo-phase1-fid-123867",
     "fca-gitxaala-v-canada-2016-fca-187",
     "finance-canada-tmx-purchase-speech-2018-05-29",
     "ford-nemaska-lithium-hydroxide-2023-05-22",
     "fr-proc-10947-2025-06-03",
     "fr-proc-11045-2026-07-20",
     "fr-proc-9893-2019-05-19",
     "globalnews-enbridge-mainline-postponed-2026-07",
     "hellenicshippingnews-platts-rofr-impossible-experts-2026-08",
     "kinder-morgan-tmx-suspends-spending-2018-04-08",
     "lng-canada-fid-2018-10-01",
     "lngcanada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "nexgen-offtake-us-utility-2025-08",
     "nmg-government-of-canada-offtake",
     "northcliff-sisson-fs-update-2026-08-31",
     "pm-carney-launches-major-projects-office-2025-08-29",
     "pm-carney-remarks-c5-passage-2025-06-20",
     "pm-trudeau-pipeline-announcement-2016-11-29",
     "pmet-cv5-feasibility-powerco-2025-10-20",
     "sask-src-realloys-offtake-2025-12-08",
     "scc-reference-impact-assessment-act-2023-scc-23",
     "semiconductortoday-dow-gallium-alcoa-wagerup-2026-09-01",
     "shell-lng-canada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "south-bow-q2-2026-results-2026-08-05",
     "statcan-cimt-exports-hs6-2026-07",
     "tc-energy-keystone-xl-termination-2021-06-09",
     "teck-frontier-withdrawal-letter-2020-02-23",
     "transcanada-energy-east-termination-2017-10-05",
     "un-comtrade-us-imports-hs7601-2016-2026",
     "usgs-mcs2026-aluminum",
     "usgs-mis-aluminum-2024-12",
     "usgs-mis-aluminum-2025-12",
     "ustr-about-policy-offices-press-office-press-releases-2026-july",
     "vianode-gm-supply-agreement-2025-01-16",
     "wright-cnbc-transcript-2025-02-07"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "le-quebec-aux-urnes",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/le-quebec-aux-urnes/",
   "title": "Le Québec aux urnes : les chantiers restent, la voie rapide est incertaine",
   "subtitle": "Peu importe qui l'emporte le 5 octobre, le Québec continuera de miser sur l'hydroélectricité, les mines et les lignes électriques vers le sud. Ce que le vote change, c'est qui décide, et à quel rythme.",
   "summary": "Tous les partis susceptibles de gouverner le Québec après le 5 octobre veulent plus d'hydroélectricité et plus de mines, et les nouvelles lignes vers New York et la Nouvelle-Angleterre sont déjà en service. Le vote tranche des questions plus étroites : le Québec relancera-t-il son projet de loi d'accélération mort au feuilleton (seule la CAQ, projetée à zéro siège, le promet), comment l'entente de Churchill Falls, encore non contraignante, sera-t-elle menée à terme, et comment un probable gouvernement péquiste accueillera-t-il les lois fédérales d'accélération ? Notre prévision voulant que plus de ressources canadiennes parviennent aux États-Unis bouge à peine.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 3,
   "tags": [
    "élection québécoise",
    "Parti Québécois",
    "projet de loi 5",
    "lois d'accélération",
    "Churchill Falls",
    "Hydro-Québec",
    "électricité",
    "minéraux critiques",
    "C-5",
    "C-39",
    "référendum",
    "les deux pays y gagnent"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T04:35:21Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "quebec-votes",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/quebec-votes/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "churchill-falls-hq-price-cents"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-06-04-section-232-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-doubled-from-25-to-50",
     "2026-06-10-quebec-bill-5-dies-on-the-order-paper",
     "2026-08-17-ottawa-pledges-up-to-10b-for-churchill-falls-gull-island",
     "2026-09-03-pq-promises-faster-mining-permits",
     "2026-09-07-st-pierre-plamondon-wont-tear-up-churchill-deal",
     "2026-09-17-nl-house-of-assembly-backs-churchill-falls-deal-21-18",
     "2026-09-25-report-ottawa-warned-quebec-of-us-interference",
     "2026-spring-us-approach-to-quebec-on-tariffs-bypassing-ottawa"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-39",
     "c-5",
     "churchill-falls-dcia-2026",
     "qc-bill-5"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P12",
     "P7",
     "P9"
    ],
    "project": [
     "chpe",
     "necec"
    ],
    "source": [
     "alcoa-10q-q2-2025",
     "assnat-bill-5-page",
     "assnat-journal-debats-2026-02-17",
     "avangrid-necec-complete",
     "caq-q5-pledge-2026-09-09",
     "century-aluminum-10q-q2-2026",
     "cer-electricity-trade-summary-2026-09-25",
     "cer-energy-futures-2026-data",
     "chpe-completion",
     "churchill-falls-dcia-2026-08-17",
     "churchill-falls-hq-18-k-2025",
     "cp-granbyexpress-motion-marinvest-2026-02",
     "fr-proc-10947-2025-06-03",
     "fr-proc-11045-2026-07-20",
     "fr-proc-9893-2019-05-19",
     "hq-labrador-release-2026-08-17",
     "lemanic-innus-churchill-2026-08-17",
     "mpo-labrador-trough-fr",
     "nlgov-churchill-falls-agreement-2026-08-17",
     "nmg-government-of-canada-offtake",
     "nmg-panasonic-becancour-2026-02-25",
     "noovo-pspp-churchill-2026-09-07",
     "pcq-plateforme-2026",
     "plq-engagements-2026",
     "pq-abitibi-regions-2026-09-03",
     "pq-livre-bleu-2026",
     "pq-no-referendum-before-2029-2026-08-18",
     "qc-referendum-act-c-64-1",
     "qc125-projection-2026-09-28",
     "qs-plateforme-2026",
     "quebec-meie-portrait-aluminium-2026",
     "rc-allegations-ingerence-americaine-2026-09-25",
     "riotinto-q2-2026-operations-review",
     "statcan-cimt-exports-hs6-2026-07",
     "statcan-table-12-10-0175",
     "un-comtrade-us-imports-hs7601-2016-2026"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "pourquoi-tester-une-explication-improbable",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/pourquoi-tester-une-explication-improbable/",
   "title": "Pourquoi mettre à l'épreuve une explication à laquelle nous ne croyons pas",
   "subtitle": "Pourquoi nous donnons à une explication improbable sa meilleure défense, et ce que sa mise à l'épreuve a permis de trouver jusqu'ici.",
   "summary": "Ce journal met volontairement à l'épreuve une explication spéculative à laquelle il ne croit pas : que Washington ait prévu et voulu la façon dont le Canada a réagi. L'explication improbable décide où chercher; la preuve décide du verdict. Jusqu'ici, les événements évalués qui départagent les lectures penchent nettement de l'autre côté, et les recherches qu'elle a suscitées ont trouvé des choses qui tiennent, peu importe les intentions de quiconque : aucune prévision de ce qui s'est réellement produit, aucun argent américain caché derrière les poursuites, et aucune chorégraphie dans les provocations.",
   "series": "Méthode",
   "series_order": 1,
   "tags": [
    "méthode",
    "rasoir d'Ockham",
    "explications spéculatives",
    "prédictions",
    "probabilités",
    "marchés de prédiction",
    "financement des poursuites",
    "provocations",
    "prévoyance"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-24T14:49:32Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "why-we-test-unlikely-explanations",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/why-we-test-unlikely-explanations/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2026-06-09-ksi-lisims-challenges-withdrawn-after-western-lng-benefit-agreements"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P10",
     "P14",
     "P6"
    ],
    "source": [
     "data-litigation-funding-funders-coded-csv",
     "data-provocations-provocations-events-csv",
     "data-provocations-timing-test-results-csv",
     "leger-omnibus-canada-us-trade-war-2026-08"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "suivi-du-risque-extreme",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/suivi-du-risque-extreme/",
   "title": "Ce qui devrait changer d'abord",
   "subtitle": "Un suivi permanent du risque extrême d'une action militaire américaine contre le Canada, et des treize signes avant-coureurs que nous surveillons",
   "summary": "Le premier ministre Carney a qualifié de simple gestion du risque le fait d'examiner les risques extrêmes. Nous en suivons un : une action militaire américaine contre le Canada. Nos probabilités sont très faibles. Voici les signes avant-coureurs qui viendraient en premier, où chacun en est aujourd'hui, ce qu'ont dit les responsables américains et comment nous mettrons cette page à jour.",
   "series": "Risques peu probables",
   "series_order": 2,
   "tags": [
    "risque peu probable",
    "risque militaire",
    "NORAD",
    "États-Unis",
    "signes avant-coureurs",
    "prédictions"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-06T19:21:17Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "tail-risk-tracker",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/tail-risk-tracker/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "event": [
     "2025-02-09-waltz-dont-think-theres-any-plans-to-invade-canada",
     "2025-05-04-trump-mtp-force-against-canada-highly-unlikely-greenland-not-ruled-out",
     "2026-01-06-leavitt-military-always-an-option-greenland",
     "2026-01-12-hr7016-no-funds-for-nato-invasion-act-introduced",
     "2026-01-20-globe-caf-modelled-hypothetical-us-invasion",
     "2026-01-21-trump-davos-i-wont-use-force-greenland",
     "2026-01-26-hoekstra-norad-would-have-to-be-altered-thats-crazy-were-not-a-threat",
     "2026-05-18-pentagon-pauses-permanent-joint-board-on-defence",
     "2026-09-02-paparo-invading-canada-utterly-preposterous-victoria",
     "2026-09-23-carney-nyt-extreme-tail-risk-us-military-action",
     "2026-09-25-dunleavy-zero-chance-us-invades-canada-banff",
     "2026-09-29-carney-no-response-to-navarro-and-trump",
     "2026-09-29-navarro-warns-canada-against-election-interference-maine-michigan"
    ],
    "hypothesis": [
     "risk"
    ],
    "prediction": [
     "P17",
     "P18",
     "P19",
     "P20"
    ],
    "source": [
     "cbc-cp-carney-nyt-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "cbc-hoekstra-norad-altered-luke-afb-2026-01",
     "cbc-pentagon-pauses-joint-defence-board-2026-05-18",
     "cbc-us-orders-kyiv-embassy-families-leave-2022-01-23",
     "cnbc-leavitt-greenland-military-option-2026-01-06",
     "cp24-ctv-live-carney-nyt-reactions-2026-09-24",
     "cp24-navarro-lobbyists-election-interference-2026-09-29",
     "csis-russias-gamble-ukraine-2022-01",
     "ctv-cp-dunleavy-zero-chance-banff-2026-09-25",
     "factcheck-russian-denials-2022-02-24",
     "france24-afp-canada-models-us-invasion-2026-01-20",
     "globe-paparo-preposterous-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "globe-white-house-trump-protected-canada-2026-09-24",
     "govinfo-hr7016-no-funds-for-nato-invasion-act",
     "guillot-hasc-posture-statement-2026-03-17",
     "maple-paparo-victoria-2026-09-02",
     "nbc-mtp-transcript-2025-02-09",
     "nbc-mtp-trump-transcript-2025-05-04",
     "npr-trump-davos-wont-use-force-2026-01-21",
     "nyt-carney-interview-tail-risk-2026-09-23",
     "reuters-russia-blood-supplies-2022-01-28",
     "state-dept-travel-advisory-canada-level-1",
     "travel-gc-ca-us-advisory-2026-09-28",
     "x-stevis-gridneff-thread-carney-2026-09-23"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "personne-n-avait-predit-les-deux-volets",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/personne-n-avait-predit-les-deux-volets/",
   "title": "Une réponse embarrassante",
   "subtitle": "Avant les tarifs, Washington disait que le Canada ne pouvait pas bâtir, et les analystes, que tout chantier se tournerait vers d'autres acheteurs que les États-Unis. En quelques mois, le Canada a adopté des lois d'accélération, et le pétrole destiné aux États-Unis est resté au-dessus de son niveau de 2023. Personne à Washington n'avait prédit les deux.",
   "summary": "Moins de cinq mois après le premier décret tarifaire américain, trois législatures canadiennes avaient adopté des lois d'accélération, et le pétrole destiné aux États-Unis restait au-dessus de son niveau de 2023, malgré un recul en 2025. Avant que cela se produise, les responsables américains disaient que le Canada ne pouvait pas bâtir, les analystes s'attendaient à ce que tout chantier se tourne vers d'autres acheteurs, et le Congrès voulait qu'on bâtisse d'un commun accord. Nous n'avons trouvé aucune prévision américaine des deux volets à la fois, ce qui fait de la vague de construction un résultat à expliquer, et non une évidence.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 2,
   "tags": [
    "prévoyance",
    "prédictions",
    "Chris Wright",
    "Pete Hoekstra",
    "groupes de réflexion",
    "Congrès",
    "pipelines",
    "C-5",
    "lois d'accélération",
    "les deux pays y gagnent"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-15T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "nobody-saw-it-coming",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/nobody-saw-it-coming/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "ca-crude-exports-non-us-kbd",
     "ca-crude-exports-to-us-kbd"
    ],
    "claim": [
     "outcome-not-obvious-in-advance"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2023-project-2025-mandate-calls-for-hemispheric-energy-policy-with-canada",
     "2024-11-27-afpm-us-refiners-depend-on-canadian-crude-ask-energy-exclusion",
     "2025-01-30-atlantic-council-webster-tariffs-push-partners-to-diversify-including-china",
     "2025-02-07-wright-cnbc-dismisses-canada-shipping-oil-west-as-hard-and-small",
     "2025-02-24-aei-dueck-51st-state-talk-fuels-anti-americanism-and-a-liberal-win",
     "2025-03-31-csis-hernandez-roy-canada-talks-coastal-infrastructure-us-could-lose-heavy-crude",
     "2025-04-07-miran-hudson-remarks-five-ways-partners-can-share-the-burden",
     "2025-04-29-cfr-alden-carney-promised-to-diversify-with-new-infrastructure",
     "2025-05-07-aei-election-recap-olsen-no-resources-in-trump-asks-tronnes-kick-in-the-butt",
     "2025-10-07-carney-s-second-white-house-visit",
     "2025-11-27-canadaalberta-mou-path-to-a-1m-bbl-day-bitumen-pipeline-to-the-bc",
     "2026-07-20-hoekstra-edmonton-burgum-wright-restrained-we-need-oil",
     "2026-07-31-enbridge-postpones-mainline-optimization-phase-2",
     "2026-09-29-lng-canada-phase-2-final-investment-decision"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "bc-bill-15",
     "c-5",
     "on-bill-5"
    ],
    "project": [
     "enbridge-mlo-phase-1"
    ],
    "source": [
     "aei-canadian-election-recap-2025-05-07",
     "aei-dueck-canada-trump-admin-part2",
     "aei-dueck-canada-trump-admin-part3",
     "afpm-potential-north-american-tariffs",
     "atlanticcouncil-tariffs-energy-dominance",
     "cbc-hoekstra-pnwer-most-compelling-oil-2026-07-20",
     "cbc-trump-davos-oil-gas-2025-01-23",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2019-01-2024-12",
     "cer-crude-oil-export-by-destination-2024-01-2026-07",
     "cer-rec-en-data-analysis-energy-markets-market-snapshots-2026-market-s",
     "cfr-alden-carney-election-2025",
     "congress-hr3062-119-promoting-cross-border-energy-infrastructure-act",
     "congress-s1485-119-north-american-energy-act",
     "congress-s23-118-promoting-cross-border-energy-infrastructure-act",
     "congress-s989-118-north-american-energy-act",
     "cpac-hoekstra-pnwer-edmonton-2026-07-20",
     "csis-effects-tariff-threats-canada-mexico",
     "eia-us-crude-imports-from-canada-mcrimusca2",
     "enbridge-mlo-phase1-fid-123867",
     "eo14193-canada-2025-02-01",
     "fr-proc-10947-2025-06-03",
     "fr-proc-10962-copper-2025-07-30",
     "globalnews-enbridge-mainline-postponed-2026-07",
     "globe-carney-offered-double-oil-exports-2026-07-21",
     "heritage-antoni-tariff-critics-overblown-2025-02-04",
     "miran-hudson-remarks-2025-04-07-whitehouse",
     "nationalpost-hoekstra-encouraged-energy-pact-2025-12-09",
     "pm-carney-launches-major-projects-office-2025-08-29",
     "pmo-lng-canada-phase-2-fid-2026-09-29",
     "project2025-mandate-for-leadership-2023",
     "statcan-cimt-exports-hs6-2026-07",
     "truthsocial-status-29396",
     "wright-cnbc-transcript-2025-02-07",
     "yahoo-cp-carney-offered-nearly-double-oil-2026-07-20"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "slug": "qui-paie",
   "lang": "fr",
   "url": "https://carnet49.ca/fr/articles/qui-paie/",
   "title": "Qui paie",
   "subtitle": "Les deux pays peuvent y gagner pendant que beaucoup de leurs habitants paient. Qui assume le coût de la guerre commerciale, chiffres à l'appui, et ce que les chiffres ne disent pas.",
   "summary": "Qu'un pays y gagne ne veut pas dire que tout le monde y gagne. Les travailleurs de l'acier, les villes forestières de la Colombie-Britannique, les travailleurs des pièces d'auto, les transformateurs d'aluminium, les contribuables et les Premières Nations en paient le prix; les acheteurs d'aluminium, les distillateurs et les villes frontalières des États-Unis aussi. L'emploi manufacturier est à peu près au niveau d'il y a un an, mais les pertes sont concentrées, et bien des fermetures invoquent l'approvisionnement en bois ou la fin du soutien américain aux véhicules électriques en même temps que les tarifs, ou avant eux.",
   "series": "Qui gagne, qui paie",
   "series_order": 4,
   "tags": [
    "qui paie",
    "coûts",
    "emplois",
    "acier",
    "aluminium",
    "bois d'œuvre",
    "automobile",
    "consommateurs",
    "contribuables",
    "Premières Nations",
    "États-Unis",
    "les deux pays y gagnent"
   ],
   "published_at": "2026-10-02T19:09:37Z",
   "updated_at": "2026-10-22T12:00:35Z",
   "translation": {
    "slug": "who-pays",
    "lang": "en",
    "url": "https://carnet49.ca/articles/who-pays/"
   },
   "cites": {
    "series": [
     "who-pays-algoma-us-share-of-shipments",
     "who-pays-seph-july-auto-parts-jobs",
     "who-pays-seph-july-vehicle-assembly-jobs",
     "who-pays-seph-july-wood-products-jobs",
     "who-pays-us-spirits-exports-to-canada-mar-dec",
     "who-pays-us-wine-exports-to-canada"
    ],
    "claim": [
     "outcome-build-out-pays-trade-war-doesnt"
    ],
    "event": [
     "2025-12-01-algoma-issues-1005-layoff-notices",
     "2026-08-12-stellantis-tells-unifor-it-may-sell-brampton-plant",
     "2026-08-22-section-338-tariffs-hit-canadian-plywood-mdf-and-other-wood-products",
     "2026-09-28-stelco-to-idle-hamilton-cold-rolled-and-coated-lines",
     "2026-10-01-afn-pacific-link-listing-12-days-after-consultation-deadline",
     "2026-10-01-ubcic-rejects-pacific-link-vows-court-fight",
     "2026-10-14-commerce-softwood-ar7-final-all-others-24-75"
    ],
    "instrument": [
     "c-39",
     "mega-deduction"
    ],
    "source": [
     "alcoa-10k-2025",
     "algoma-40f-2025-aif-2026-03-11",
     "algoma-q1-2026-results-2026-05-12",
     "algoma-q2-2026-results-2026-07-29",
     "aptn-afn-warns-c39-west-coast-pipeline-2026-09",
     "boc-mpr-2025-10-29",
     "boc-opening-statement-2026-09-02",
     "brp-q2-fy2027-results-2026-09-03",
     "canada-en-department-finance-news-2026-08-canada-announces-targeted",
     "canada-en-department-finance-news-2026-09-government-of-canada",
     "canfor-fox-creek-closure-2026-07-28",
     "cbc-chiefs-ontario-consultation-funding-2025-10-21",
     "cbc-honda-suspends-ev-plant-2026-05",
     "cbp-csms-70050970-2026-09-28",
     "cdev-annual-report-2025",
     "cdev-first-indigenous-loan-guarantee-westcoast",
     "ceefc-letl-update-2026-08-25",
     "discus-2025-spirits-exports-report-2026-03-31",
     "domtar-crofton-closure-2025-12-02",
     "esdc-ei-measures-extended-2026-03-20",
     "fr-2026-21286-softwood-cvd-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "fr-2026-21296-softwood-ad-ar7-final-2026-10-19",
     "gac-softwood-lumber-faq-2026-08-05",
     "globalnews-cp-pacific-link-indigenous-consultation-2026-10-01",
     "gm-8k-ev-charges-2025-10-14",
     "honda-ev-strategy-losses-2026-03-12",
     "ised-qp-steel-aluminum-2025-09",
     "lethbridgenewsnow-cp-quickquotes-pacific-link-2026-10-01",
     "lpc-canada-strong-fiscal-costing-plan-2025-04-19",
     "molson-coors-q2-2026-8k-2026-08-06",
     "nyfed-who-pays-2025-tariffs-2026-02-12",
     "pbo-tmx-2024-11-08",
     "pembina-cedar-lng-fid-2024-06-25",
     "pmo-pacific-link-listed-national-interest-2026-10-01",
     "riotinto-fy2025-results-2026-02-19",
     "seu-2026-annex1",
     "spirits-canada-statement-2026-09-09",
     "statcan-employment-us-demand-2025-12-22",
     "statcan-lfs-august-2026-2026-09-04",
     "statcan-lfs-june-2026-2026-07-10",
     "statcan-seph-14100201-2026-07",
     "statcan-travel-to-us-year-in-review-2026-07-22",
     "theskeena-pacific-link-designated-2026-10-02",
     "tmc-q4-2025-results-2026-05-01",
     "unifor-cami-brightdrop-cancellation-2025-10-21",
     "westfraser-capacity-reductions-2025-11-06",
     "wiley-s338-canada-tariffs-2026-07-27",
     "wine-institute-one-year-later-2026-03-04"
    ]
   }
  }
 ]
}